This may be the last FF post for a while -- the wife and I are spending the holidays in the Caribbean and will miss a couple games for the first time in years.
I took a look at how we compare to the last 8 seasons at the same point (that is, after 9 games). The choice of eight seasons was arbitrary, just trying to get enough data for a valid comparison. The results might surprise some of you:
First of all, the strength of schedule this season is about average for the period. It's lower than the average for Coach Gottfried's tenure, but when we balance it with the easier schedules of the Coach Lowe years the result is that half the prior eight seasons had easier schedules and half had harder ones. So the comparison to the last eight seasons ought to be a fair one.
We are looking surprisingly good in most respects compared to past years, which is quite encouraging considering that everyone on the team has had to adjust to a greatly expanded role. The only player on the roster who played 50% of available minutes last year was Cat. This season every one of the rotating seven is over 50%. You'd think that there's potential for marked improvement as we gain experience, and my gut tells me that we've seen marked improvement in the last few games. Rebounding, ball security, and fouling all look like strengths.
The weakness of this team continues to be shooting the ball. Our eFG% is the worst of the nine-year span by a large margin -- the next lowest was over 49% and every other year was well over 50%. Three point shooting has been weak at 31.2% although it isn't that far below the eight year average of 33.4%. You'd think that Cat and Maverick are likely to improve enough to get us back to average, and Terry's return should help. But two-point jumpers from 4 or 5 feet and out are a very big issue because we're shooting only 32.1% and Maverick Rowan is the only player shooting better than 32%. Whether that's shot selection, technique, a very lengthy slump, lack of confidence, or whatever I have no idea. But it ain't a good sign for the future. When (exactly) one-third of your shots are jumpers you can't afford to shoot 32%.
Another reason to have some optimism here is that the increased minutes have actually hurt the shooting of a couple of key players. We have four guys who each take roughly one-fourth of the shots when they're on the floor. Two of them, Caleb and Maverick, have greatly expanded roles and have eFG%'s above the team average. But Cat's eFG% has dropped from 48% to 37% year to year and Abu's has dropped from 47% to 43%. There's plenty of reason to think that both Cat and Abu can improve.
I should mention free throw shooting, which is the worst in the nine-season span. On the other hand we are shooting vastly more free throws -- a whopping 37% above average -- so the points scored at the line is by far the greatest over the period. We average an amazing 5 points more per game from the line.
What about defense? Well the main factor there is again shooting -- forcing defenders into low-percentage shots. We compare pretty well to previous teams in other respects. But again, we can be encouraged by the prospects of increasing experience. Not to mention the effect of discovering our best lineups.
Bottom line, the numbers are reasonably encouraging because I can see reasons to be optimistic about improvements.
I took a look at how we compare to the last 8 seasons at the same point (that is, after 9 games). The choice of eight seasons was arbitrary, just trying to get enough data for a valid comparison. The results might surprise some of you:
We are looking surprisingly good in most respects compared to past years, which is quite encouraging considering that everyone on the team has had to adjust to a greatly expanded role. The only player on the roster who played 50% of available minutes last year was Cat. This season every one of the rotating seven is over 50%. You'd think that there's potential for marked improvement as we gain experience, and my gut tells me that we've seen marked improvement in the last few games. Rebounding, ball security, and fouling all look like strengths.
The weakness of this team continues to be shooting the ball. Our eFG% is the worst of the nine-year span by a large margin -- the next lowest was over 49% and every other year was well over 50%. Three point shooting has been weak at 31.2% although it isn't that far below the eight year average of 33.4%. You'd think that Cat and Maverick are likely to improve enough to get us back to average, and Terry's return should help. But two-point jumpers from 4 or 5 feet and out are a very big issue because we're shooting only 32.1% and Maverick Rowan is the only player shooting better than 32%. Whether that's shot selection, technique, a very lengthy slump, lack of confidence, or whatever I have no idea. But it ain't a good sign for the future. When (exactly) one-third of your shots are jumpers you can't afford to shoot 32%.
Another reason to have some optimism here is that the increased minutes have actually hurt the shooting of a couple of key players. We have four guys who each take roughly one-fourth of the shots when they're on the floor. Two of them, Caleb and Maverick, have greatly expanded roles and have eFG%'s above the team average. But Cat's eFG% has dropped from 48% to 37% year to year and Abu's has dropped from 47% to 43%. There's plenty of reason to think that both Cat and Abu can improve.
I should mention free throw shooting, which is the worst in the nine-season span. On the other hand we are shooting vastly more free throws -- a whopping 37% above average -- so the points scored at the line is by far the greatest over the period. We average an amazing 5 points more per game from the line.
What about defense? Well the main factor there is again shooting -- forcing defenders into low-percentage shots. We compare pretty well to previous teams in other respects. But again, we can be encouraged by the prospects of increasing experience. Not to mention the effect of discovering our best lineups.
Bottom line, the numbers are reasonably encouraging because I can see reasons to be optimistic about improvements.
