Match is scheduled for a 1 p.m. start, and it is Senior Day (last home meet for Justin Oliver, Sean Fausz, Malik McDonald and Jamel Morris, and I'm sure Sam Melikian will be honored as well). I'll do a more in-depth preview when it gets closer and the probables are posted on GoPack, but there are a few notes and other items I figured I'd post now:
First, a quick rundown of top-33 matchups for Sunday per the first edition of the coaches panel rankings — the highlight would obviously be 133 if redshirt sophomore Tariq Wilson is back in the lineup for the Pack:
133 — #2 George Phillipi vs. #8 Tariq Wilson
141 — #27 Lorenzo Bentley vs. #26 Jamel Morris
157 — #13 Taleb Rahmani vs. #4 Hayden Hidlay
165 — #28 Jake Wentzel vs. #16 Thomas Bullard
184 — #12 Santino Bonaccorsi vs. #4 Nick Reenan
197 - #28 Kellan Stout vs. #21 Malik McDonald
The only weight where Pitt is ranked and NC State isn't is heavyweight (#8 Demetrius Thomas). If 125 R-Sr. Sean Fausz (not ranked in coaches panel for not having minimum number of matches) is out there for NCSU, he'd be a huge favorite. 149 Justin Oliver (#7 in coaches panel) should also be a big favorite, while I'd call 174 Daniel Bullard (#21) a sizable favorite as well.
However, you can see how competitive a lot of the ranked vs. ranked matchups should be above. It's a tough return match for Wilson, but one he can certainly win if healthy … however, if he's not ready to go yet, that makes Phillipi a monster favorite and likely bonus points. Rahmani has also given Hidlay some fits in the past — although Hidlay beat him three times last year, they went to OT in the ACC finals and their meeting at NCAAs was decided by only 2 points.
Second, FloWrestling updated their ACC rankings yesterday and for the first time this year the scoring rubric doesn't have NC State winning the team race. Every previous edition had the Pack winning by pretty good margins in the past, but I've been on record since probably December saying it's going to be really, really close at the conference meet.
Those ranks are available here: https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6246818-acc-rankings-2018-19/30397-125-acc-rankings
A quick rundown of where they have the Pack guys finishing with my comment:
125 Fausz - 2nd … He can certainly win this weight, but VA's Mueller is wrestling like a machine. I believe he's bonus pointed everybody since being pulled out of redshirt
133 Wilson - 3rd … This is way too low in my opinion, but is taking the injury into account, obviously. Pitt's Phillipi has been looking great this year, but then lost to VT's Korbin Meyers in the dual, so Meyers got bumped to No. 1. This is anybody's weight, and a key swing one for the NCSU-VT team race.
141 Morris - 2nd … This looks about right to me, although I'd really interested in seeing VT's Mitch Moore vs. Morris in the dual. Moore has an impressive resume for a freshman, although Morris has been looking great.
149 Oliver - 3rd … This is a loaded with class with three potential All-Americans in my opinion between UNC's Austin O'Connor, Duke's Mitch Finesilver and Oliver - all are in the top 7 nationally. Seeding will be huge because the semifinal that gets two of these guys on that side is going to be a potential NCAA quarterfinals or better match.
157 Hidlay - 1st … I mentioned the problems Rahmani has given Hidlay in the past, but Hidlay is a clear No. 1 here as a returning NCAA finalist.
165 T. Bullard - 3rd … VT's Mehki Lewis is a huge favorite here, but Bullard could climb to second IMO. UVA's Cam Coy beat Bullard in OT in the dual and is now ranked second.
174 D. Bullard - 3rd … Two-time All-American David McFadden is a big-time favorite, but Bullard lost to second-ranked Matt Finesilver by one in the dual. He can make the finals if he's on top of his game. Both Bullards placing second could swing the title in State's favor.
184 Reenan - 1st … This weight class is so, so loaded, maybe moreso than 149. UNC's Chip Ness, an All-American last year, is all the way down at fifth after an up-and-down regular season, but he can win it. VT's Zack Zavatsky was also an All-American last year. I still like Reenan here, but huge swing points between him and Zavatsky are at stake. Reenan beat Zavatsky while redshirting last year in OT.
197 McDonald - 3rd … VT's Tom Sleigh and UVA's Jay Aiello have made this a tougher weight class than I expected going into the year. Both are top 8 in the coaches' panel. I think the key is McDonald has to place in the top 3. Pitt's Stout is not far behind in the coaches panel rankings, so interested in how the dual turns out, and Duke's Alec Schenk lost to McDonald only by 2 in the dual, so taking third won't be easy.
HWT Colin Lawler - 5th … Big drop from 3rd in the last rankings, which affects the team race in a major way. UVA's Tyler Love beating him in the dual (by 2) was disappointing, and it's hard to see the Pack placing higher than fifth at the weight.
The team race based on all those placings above (and obviously not counting bonus points) resulted in these scores:
VT - 90.5
NCSU - 70
UVA - 45.5
Pitt - 44.5
UNC - 37.5
Duke - 22
People shouldn't start freaking out over the above, it's just a projection and I think State can outplace those in a few spots, but I thought it was newsworthy enough to talk about.
Flo's national rankings still spits out the Pack in eighth place nationally based on their national top 20s (and VT 16, which I think is far too low for them), but as I've said many times before a 6-team tournament with so much familiarity makes ACCs really difficult and not a good predictor of how things will shake out at nationals.
FWIW, the Flo national ranks for NCSU (again, I think some of these are conservative and all of Fausz, Wilson and Hidlay can place higher than their current standings, which would result in major team points):
125 Fausz - 9
133 Wilson - 11
141 Morris - NR
149 Oliver - 7
157 Hidlay - 4
165 T Bullard - 20
174 D Bullard - NR
184 Reenan - 2
197 McDonald - 17
HWT Lawler/Wilson - NR
That was longer than I expected, but a pretty thorough breakdown of where things stand at this point going into Sunday, within the conference and nationally.
First, a quick rundown of top-33 matchups for Sunday per the first edition of the coaches panel rankings — the highlight would obviously be 133 if redshirt sophomore Tariq Wilson is back in the lineup for the Pack:
133 — #2 George Phillipi vs. #8 Tariq Wilson
141 — #27 Lorenzo Bentley vs. #26 Jamel Morris
157 — #13 Taleb Rahmani vs. #4 Hayden Hidlay
165 — #28 Jake Wentzel vs. #16 Thomas Bullard
184 — #12 Santino Bonaccorsi vs. #4 Nick Reenan
197 - #28 Kellan Stout vs. #21 Malik McDonald
The only weight where Pitt is ranked and NC State isn't is heavyweight (#8 Demetrius Thomas). If 125 R-Sr. Sean Fausz (not ranked in coaches panel for not having minimum number of matches) is out there for NCSU, he'd be a huge favorite. 149 Justin Oliver (#7 in coaches panel) should also be a big favorite, while I'd call 174 Daniel Bullard (#21) a sizable favorite as well.
However, you can see how competitive a lot of the ranked vs. ranked matchups should be above. It's a tough return match for Wilson, but one he can certainly win if healthy … however, if he's not ready to go yet, that makes Phillipi a monster favorite and likely bonus points. Rahmani has also given Hidlay some fits in the past — although Hidlay beat him three times last year, they went to OT in the ACC finals and their meeting at NCAAs was decided by only 2 points.
Second, FloWrestling updated their ACC rankings yesterday and for the first time this year the scoring rubric doesn't have NC State winning the team race. Every previous edition had the Pack winning by pretty good margins in the past, but I've been on record since probably December saying it's going to be really, really close at the conference meet.
Those ranks are available here: https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6246818-acc-rankings-2018-19/30397-125-acc-rankings
A quick rundown of where they have the Pack guys finishing with my comment:
125 Fausz - 2nd … He can certainly win this weight, but VA's Mueller is wrestling like a machine. I believe he's bonus pointed everybody since being pulled out of redshirt
133 Wilson - 3rd … This is way too low in my opinion, but is taking the injury into account, obviously. Pitt's Phillipi has been looking great this year, but then lost to VT's Korbin Meyers in the dual, so Meyers got bumped to No. 1. This is anybody's weight, and a key swing one for the NCSU-VT team race.
141 Morris - 2nd … This looks about right to me, although I'd really interested in seeing VT's Mitch Moore vs. Morris in the dual. Moore has an impressive resume for a freshman, although Morris has been looking great.
149 Oliver - 3rd … This is a loaded with class with three potential All-Americans in my opinion between UNC's Austin O'Connor, Duke's Mitch Finesilver and Oliver - all are in the top 7 nationally. Seeding will be huge because the semifinal that gets two of these guys on that side is going to be a potential NCAA quarterfinals or better match.
157 Hidlay - 1st … I mentioned the problems Rahmani has given Hidlay in the past, but Hidlay is a clear No. 1 here as a returning NCAA finalist.
165 T. Bullard - 3rd … VT's Mehki Lewis is a huge favorite here, but Bullard could climb to second IMO. UVA's Cam Coy beat Bullard in OT in the dual and is now ranked second.
174 D. Bullard - 3rd … Two-time All-American David McFadden is a big-time favorite, but Bullard lost to second-ranked Matt Finesilver by one in the dual. He can make the finals if he's on top of his game. Both Bullards placing second could swing the title in State's favor.
184 Reenan - 1st … This weight class is so, so loaded, maybe moreso than 149. UNC's Chip Ness, an All-American last year, is all the way down at fifth after an up-and-down regular season, but he can win it. VT's Zack Zavatsky was also an All-American last year. I still like Reenan here, but huge swing points between him and Zavatsky are at stake. Reenan beat Zavatsky while redshirting last year in OT.
197 McDonald - 3rd … VT's Tom Sleigh and UVA's Jay Aiello have made this a tougher weight class than I expected going into the year. Both are top 8 in the coaches' panel. I think the key is McDonald has to place in the top 3. Pitt's Stout is not far behind in the coaches panel rankings, so interested in how the dual turns out, and Duke's Alec Schenk lost to McDonald only by 2 in the dual, so taking third won't be easy.
HWT Colin Lawler - 5th … Big drop from 3rd in the last rankings, which affects the team race in a major way. UVA's Tyler Love beating him in the dual (by 2) was disappointing, and it's hard to see the Pack placing higher than fifth at the weight.
The team race based on all those placings above (and obviously not counting bonus points) resulted in these scores:
VT - 90.5
NCSU - 70
UVA - 45.5
Pitt - 44.5
UNC - 37.5
Duke - 22
People shouldn't start freaking out over the above, it's just a projection and I think State can outplace those in a few spots, but I thought it was newsworthy enough to talk about.
Flo's national rankings still spits out the Pack in eighth place nationally based on their national top 20s (and VT 16, which I think is far too low for them), but as I've said many times before a 6-team tournament with so much familiarity makes ACCs really difficult and not a good predictor of how things will shake out at nationals.
FWIW, the Flo national ranks for NCSU (again, I think some of these are conservative and all of Fausz, Wilson and Hidlay can place higher than their current standings, which would result in major team points):
125 Fausz - 9
133 Wilson - 11
141 Morris - NR
149 Oliver - 7
157 Hidlay - 4
165 T Bullard - 20
174 D Bullard - NR
184 Reenan - 2
197 McDonald - 17
HWT Lawler/Wilson - NR
That was longer than I expected, but a pretty thorough breakdown of where things stand at this point going into Sunday, within the conference and nationally.
Last edited:
