So many games so figured it deserved its own thread:
VMI vs. East Tennessee State – ETSU has a 24-4 overall record, and its SOR (strength of record) is an impressive 28. The SOR and NET (39) are its best computer numbers, but its other ratings are not as impressive (67 in Pomeroy for instance). That said, it is only 1-2 in Q1 (albeit an impressive road win at LSU) and 2-1 in Q2. NC State fans want them to win the Southern Conference Tournament however to make sure there is no confusion over whether or not ETSU gets the mid-major benefit of the doubt.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt – This is a quad three game that if South Carolina loses would probably force the Gamecocks to win the SEC Tournament. South Carolina is 3-8 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2. It has a nice 6-5 road record and owns SEC wins at home over Kentucky and Mississippi State and also won on the road at Arkansas and Virginia. It also has two (very) bad non-conference home losses to Boston U. (NET 160) and Stetson (NET 294). S.C. is a long shot on the bubble, NC State wants it to stay that way.
Kentucky at Florida – Florida is a computer favorite. It’s 28 in NET, 28 in KPI, 22 in BPI, 32 in Pomeroy and 24 in Sagarin. However, it’s SOR is not quite as high at 41, and it is only 3-8 in Q1 games with its best wins coming on neutral court to Providence and Xavier. It also has good Q2 home wins over LSU, Auburn and Arkansas to boast, and it suffered no Q3/Q4 defeats while playing a very good schedule (SOS No. 29 overall and 12 non-conference).
Florida won’t be dinged for losing at home to a hot Kentucky team in a Q1 game, but a loss may put pressure on Florida to avoid a first round defeat in the SEC Tournament. The Gators currently have the looks of an 8/9 game team. The question is how much margin for error has it built for itself before it's on the thick of the bubble.
Kansas at Texas Tech – TT is another computer darling – 22 in NET, 21 in BPI, 21 in Pomeroy and 36 in Sagarin. However, it’s SOR is just No. 56 (NC State is 55 for instance) and it’s KPI number is only 61. Texas Tech is 3-9 in Q1 games and 4-3 in Q2, for a combined mark of 7-12, which is not that good. Neither is it’s 3-7 road mark. It also played a poor non-conference (SOS 170), but it owns a neutral court marquee win over Louisville. It’s other wins over likely/possible NCAA teams are home over West Virginia and Oklahoma and at Texas. Bottom line is on paper, Texas Tech’s resume screams borderline. One wonders how much benefit of doubt it gets after it nearly won the national title last year. This would be a bid-clincher if it wins. A loss and Texas Tech needs to do well in the Big 12 Tournament.
Georgia at LSU – LSU is safe for now (and perhaps regardless), but it has slid down to that 8/9 game range which is not that far from the bubble. Lose at home to Georgia in a Q3 game (which would be its second Q3 loss) would not stop that slide. LSU has a 4-8 Q1 record and 7-1 mark in Q2 plus an excellent SOS (No. 8 overall and non-conference), hence why it is fairly safe. It probably could absorb losing this and early in the SEC Tournament, but there is a side benefit of lessening the value of what other bubble teams (Arkansas, USC, Utah State, East Tennessee State) are calling a good win.
Rutgers at Purdue – This is a game that regardless of outcome there is good and bad for NC State.
Purdue is only 4-11 in Q1 and 9-13 in Q1/Q2 plus it has a Q3 loss, but it has crushed some quality teams at home (Michigan State by 29, Wisconsin by 19, Iowa by 36, Virginia by 29) and owns a sweep over Indiana. That is why Purdue is right on the bubble line despite being 16-14. The computers in particular like Purdue (32 on NET, 22 on Pomeroy, 19 on BPI and 18 on Sagarin). However, Purdue probably needs to be at least 2-3 games above .500 when the final tally is done to remain in the picture.
Rutgers is 4-9 in Q1, but all four wins over NCAA teams Seton Hall, Maryland, Wisconsin and Penn State came at home. As did all four its Q2 wins (4-1 mark). It is just 1-8 on the road, including a loss at Pittsburgh in the ACC. The one road win was at NET 193 Nebraska. Furthermore, it lost its one neutral court game, too — a Q3 defeat to St. Bonaventure. At some point Rutgers will want to show the committee it’s more than just a nice, home-cooked story.
Which result would benefit State most? If you believe BracketMatrix.com, Purdue is now slightly ahead of NC State on the outside looking in bubble, so a loss for the Boilermakers might be more favorable to the Pack.
UCLA at USC – This is a winner feels good, loser gets nervous type game (similar to Rutgers-Purdue). For USC, it is 10-8 in Q1/Q2. Technically it’s a Q3 game for them, but if UCLA wins it will likely bump up to Q2 status. USC (as did a few Pac 12 teams) played a poor non-conference SOS (No. 174) which may have inflated its NET (42). The Trojans do own home wins over Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford and have won at UCLA and on a neutral floor over LSU.
As for UCLA, it has an impressive 6-6 Q1 record after it has gone on a late-season roll, and this would be a Q1 victory. It is 3-3 in Q2, but its non-conference SOS is just No. 212, and it owns one of the worst losses of any at-large team, home to NET 260 Cal St. Fullerton. It also has a Q3 loss at home to Hofstra (NET 124). UCLA has swept Arizona and Colorado, two teams in the field, and also defeated Arizona State, but it lacks a marquee non-conference win (and lost to both Notre Dame and UNC from the ACC).
Personally despite the six Q1 wins for UCLA, I think USC is in a better spot, so it might be better for the Trojans to win.
Oklahoma State at Texas – The Longhorns are 5-7 in Q1 after a late season surge. This is a borderline Q2 game for them, but Oklahoma State is also not far from Q3 status. Thus this is probably a game the Longhorns need to win because if it loses, it will fall to 2-5 in Q2. Texas has road wins over Texas Tech, Purdue and Oklahoma plus a home win over West Virginia. That’s a nice cache of wins, and it has no real bad losses.
Arkansas at Texas A&M – This is a Q2 game for Arkansas. Bracketologists have Arkansas right around where NC State is, maybe a spot or two lower. Arkansas is 3-5 in Q1 games with its best win at Indiana. It also owns a home win over LSU and no Q3 or Q4 losses. That said, it’s overall Q1/Q2 mark is just 7-11, so it needs to win this contest. Losing at A&M would also give them a 4-8 road record.
Utah State at San Diego State - Utah State hasn’t really helped themselves, in my opinion, lately. Lost in the regular season finale to New Mexico (NET 143), and then had to rally from down double digits in the second half in a rematch on Thursday. Then it was tied 66-66 with about five minutes left to a Wyoming team who was in the semis on a Cinderella run after winning just seven games (including two in the Mountain West) during the regular season.
Nevertheless, Utah State (who fell five places in the NET after the Wyoming win to No. 43) can clinch a bid and end all doubts with a win over San Diego State. The two times they played in the regular season, SDSU won by nine and 12 points. If Utah State loses, it would go into the at-large pool with a 2-5 Q1 record, 2-2 in Q2 and two Q3 losses. It has neutral floor wins over Florida and LSU, two probable NCAA teams that are bottom half seeds. I’ve said it before, I think bracketologists are rating Utah State too high. Personally, I think it needs to at a minimum play San Diego State to a tight finish. SDSU should be motivated to play for a one seed.
VMI vs. East Tennessee State – ETSU has a 24-4 overall record, and its SOR (strength of record) is an impressive 28. The SOR and NET (39) are its best computer numbers, but its other ratings are not as impressive (67 in Pomeroy for instance). That said, it is only 1-2 in Q1 (albeit an impressive road win at LSU) and 2-1 in Q2. NC State fans want them to win the Southern Conference Tournament however to make sure there is no confusion over whether or not ETSU gets the mid-major benefit of the doubt.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt – This is a quad three game that if South Carolina loses would probably force the Gamecocks to win the SEC Tournament. South Carolina is 3-8 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2. It has a nice 6-5 road record and owns SEC wins at home over Kentucky and Mississippi State and also won on the road at Arkansas and Virginia. It also has two (very) bad non-conference home losses to Boston U. (NET 160) and Stetson (NET 294). S.C. is a long shot on the bubble, NC State wants it to stay that way.
Kentucky at Florida – Florida is a computer favorite. It’s 28 in NET, 28 in KPI, 22 in BPI, 32 in Pomeroy and 24 in Sagarin. However, it’s SOR is not quite as high at 41, and it is only 3-8 in Q1 games with its best wins coming on neutral court to Providence and Xavier. It also has good Q2 home wins over LSU, Auburn and Arkansas to boast, and it suffered no Q3/Q4 defeats while playing a very good schedule (SOS No. 29 overall and 12 non-conference).
Florida won’t be dinged for losing at home to a hot Kentucky team in a Q1 game, but a loss may put pressure on Florida to avoid a first round defeat in the SEC Tournament. The Gators currently have the looks of an 8/9 game team. The question is how much margin for error has it built for itself before it's on the thick of the bubble.
Kansas at Texas Tech – TT is another computer darling – 22 in NET, 21 in BPI, 21 in Pomeroy and 36 in Sagarin. However, it’s SOR is just No. 56 (NC State is 55 for instance) and it’s KPI number is only 61. Texas Tech is 3-9 in Q1 games and 4-3 in Q2, for a combined mark of 7-12, which is not that good. Neither is it’s 3-7 road mark. It also played a poor non-conference (SOS 170), but it owns a neutral court marquee win over Louisville. It’s other wins over likely/possible NCAA teams are home over West Virginia and Oklahoma and at Texas. Bottom line is on paper, Texas Tech’s resume screams borderline. One wonders how much benefit of doubt it gets after it nearly won the national title last year. This would be a bid-clincher if it wins. A loss and Texas Tech needs to do well in the Big 12 Tournament.
Georgia at LSU – LSU is safe for now (and perhaps regardless), but it has slid down to that 8/9 game range which is not that far from the bubble. Lose at home to Georgia in a Q3 game (which would be its second Q3 loss) would not stop that slide. LSU has a 4-8 Q1 record and 7-1 mark in Q2 plus an excellent SOS (No. 8 overall and non-conference), hence why it is fairly safe. It probably could absorb losing this and early in the SEC Tournament, but there is a side benefit of lessening the value of what other bubble teams (Arkansas, USC, Utah State, East Tennessee State) are calling a good win.
Rutgers at Purdue – This is a game that regardless of outcome there is good and bad for NC State.
Purdue is only 4-11 in Q1 and 9-13 in Q1/Q2 plus it has a Q3 loss, but it has crushed some quality teams at home (Michigan State by 29, Wisconsin by 19, Iowa by 36, Virginia by 29) and owns a sweep over Indiana. That is why Purdue is right on the bubble line despite being 16-14. The computers in particular like Purdue (32 on NET, 22 on Pomeroy, 19 on BPI and 18 on Sagarin). However, Purdue probably needs to be at least 2-3 games above .500 when the final tally is done to remain in the picture.
Rutgers is 4-9 in Q1, but all four wins over NCAA teams Seton Hall, Maryland, Wisconsin and Penn State came at home. As did all four its Q2 wins (4-1 mark). It is just 1-8 on the road, including a loss at Pittsburgh in the ACC. The one road win was at NET 193 Nebraska. Furthermore, it lost its one neutral court game, too — a Q3 defeat to St. Bonaventure. At some point Rutgers will want to show the committee it’s more than just a nice, home-cooked story.
Which result would benefit State most? If you believe BracketMatrix.com, Purdue is now slightly ahead of NC State on the outside looking in bubble, so a loss for the Boilermakers might be more favorable to the Pack.
UCLA at USC – This is a winner feels good, loser gets nervous type game (similar to Rutgers-Purdue). For USC, it is 10-8 in Q1/Q2. Technically it’s a Q3 game for them, but if UCLA wins it will likely bump up to Q2 status. USC (as did a few Pac 12 teams) played a poor non-conference SOS (No. 174) which may have inflated its NET (42). The Trojans do own home wins over Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford and have won at UCLA and on a neutral floor over LSU.
As for UCLA, it has an impressive 6-6 Q1 record after it has gone on a late-season roll, and this would be a Q1 victory. It is 3-3 in Q2, but its non-conference SOS is just No. 212, and it owns one of the worst losses of any at-large team, home to NET 260 Cal St. Fullerton. It also has a Q3 loss at home to Hofstra (NET 124). UCLA has swept Arizona and Colorado, two teams in the field, and also defeated Arizona State, but it lacks a marquee non-conference win (and lost to both Notre Dame and UNC from the ACC).
Personally despite the six Q1 wins for UCLA, I think USC is in a better spot, so it might be better for the Trojans to win.
Oklahoma State at Texas – The Longhorns are 5-7 in Q1 after a late season surge. This is a borderline Q2 game for them, but Oklahoma State is also not far from Q3 status. Thus this is probably a game the Longhorns need to win because if it loses, it will fall to 2-5 in Q2. Texas has road wins over Texas Tech, Purdue and Oklahoma plus a home win over West Virginia. That’s a nice cache of wins, and it has no real bad losses.
Arkansas at Texas A&M – This is a Q2 game for Arkansas. Bracketologists have Arkansas right around where NC State is, maybe a spot or two lower. Arkansas is 3-5 in Q1 games with its best win at Indiana. It also owns a home win over LSU and no Q3 or Q4 losses. That said, it’s overall Q1/Q2 mark is just 7-11, so it needs to win this contest. Losing at A&M would also give them a 4-8 road record.
Utah State at San Diego State - Utah State hasn’t really helped themselves, in my opinion, lately. Lost in the regular season finale to New Mexico (NET 143), and then had to rally from down double digits in the second half in a rematch on Thursday. Then it was tied 66-66 with about five minutes left to a Wyoming team who was in the semis on a Cinderella run after winning just seven games (including two in the Mountain West) during the regular season.
Nevertheless, Utah State (who fell five places in the NET after the Wyoming win to No. 43) can clinch a bid and end all doubts with a win over San Diego State. The two times they played in the regular season, SDSU won by nine and 12 points. If Utah State loses, it would go into the at-large pool with a 2-5 Q1 record, 2-2 in Q2 and two Q3 losses. It has neutral floor wins over Florida and LSU, two probable NCAA teams that are bottom half seeds. I’ve said it before, I think bracketologists are rating Utah State too high. Personally, I think it needs to at a minimum play San Diego State to a tight finish. SDSU should be motivated to play for a one seed.
