Later today we will be releasing our mock bracket. Last year we did one and was correct on 35 of 36 at-large teams, missing out on Southern Cal who was left out in favor of Pac-12 rival Arizona State. USC had a RPI of No. 34 on Selection Sunday, making it the highest ever ranked power-five RPI team left out as an at-large.
(NC State’s NET is 33, which if treated like the RPI was would mean the Pack would set a new precedent.)
Among seeding, we correctly had NC State as a nine-seed, although technically the Wolfpack was a 10-seed and moved up a line to make the matchups work. Overall, we were 40 of 68 on getting seeds correct and were within one seed line on 61 of 68. Of the other seven, one was missing on Arizona State getting in and the five others were off by two lines. Our biggest miss: we had St. Bonaventure as an eight seed and it ended up being one of the last four teams in at No. 11.
Going back and looking at USC and it should erase any comfort that NET alone will get NC State in the field. USC was 9-10 in quad one/two (Q1/Q2) and NC State is 8-9. USC had one Q4 loss whereas NC State has two Q3 defeats. USC was 6-5 on the road, NC State is 4-6. NC State has a slightly better computer score, but USC had a much better strength of schedule (SOS).
NC State does have a marquee non-conference win in Auburn and another win over an NCAA Tournament team in Syracuse, where USC did not have a win over another at-large team in the 2018 field. USC was also 12-6 in two-bid Pac-12 and reached the conference title game.
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As for this year’s NCAA Tournament field. As of this morning we have NC State in the field, but it is very, very close. We have NC State in Dayton playing in the First Four along with Temple, TCU and Arizona State. Our first four out was St. John’s (last team cut), Indiana, Creighton and Belmont.
Those are about the eight teams to watch for, we think, when it comes to NC State’s chances. We believe that NC State, Ohio State and Temple’s resumes are practically identical and could easily see those going any particular way on the seeding lines. TCU’s poor finish and Arizona State’s low NET may be factors in favor of NC State, but we are struggling in particular with Arizona State.
The Pack ironically got in last year despite being a 64 in the RPI, 30 spots lower than USC. Arizona State is 30 spots lower than NC State in the NET. However, that NC State team had wins over UNC on the road, Duke and Clemson at home and Arizona on a neutral court, all of whom were top 13 in the RPI. It also had a road win at Syracuse and beat Florida State at home, both of whom were NCAA Tournament at-large teams.
Arizona State beat Mississippi State and Utah State on neutral courts and both Kansas and Washington at home. They are not as high a quality of wins as NC State’s were last year, but they are all NCAA Tournament teams, which is two more than this year's Wolfpack team boasts. It also beat Pac-12 Tournament champ Oregon at home. On the flipside, Arizona State has four Q3/4 losses, where NC State only had two last year (and two this year).
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BracketMatrix.com has NC State as the first team out but it also has St. John’s in the field. St. John’s NET of 73 though is a wide gap to overcome. NC State also has better computer scores besides the NET, and St. John’s does not have a non-conference schedule (No. 216) that is worth bragging about. It owns wins over Marquette (twice), Villanova and VCU and its two Q3 losses are better than State’s two were, but our hunch is if there is one that NC State could be above that the bracketologists are missing it's St. John’s.
The other we feel NCSU has a case for having a better profile than is TCU, who has a 10-13 Q1/Q2 record. It does not have a bad loss, played a better schedule and beat three tournament teams compared to two for NC State, including Iowa State on the road. However, it has a poorer road record overall and NC State has better computer numbers. Plus the Pack has a better marquee win thanks to Auburn’s late run.
Again though, it’s very close.
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Teams we think have closer calls than perhaps the experts think include Washington, VCU, Ole Miss and Baylor. VCU ironically may be saved because it did play a very smart schedule. Syracuse is safe but it also does not have a great profile.
(NC State’s NET is 33, which if treated like the RPI was would mean the Pack would set a new precedent.)
Among seeding, we correctly had NC State as a nine-seed, although technically the Wolfpack was a 10-seed and moved up a line to make the matchups work. Overall, we were 40 of 68 on getting seeds correct and were within one seed line on 61 of 68. Of the other seven, one was missing on Arizona State getting in and the five others were off by two lines. Our biggest miss: we had St. Bonaventure as an eight seed and it ended up being one of the last four teams in at No. 11.
Going back and looking at USC and it should erase any comfort that NET alone will get NC State in the field. USC was 9-10 in quad one/two (Q1/Q2) and NC State is 8-9. USC had one Q4 loss whereas NC State has two Q3 defeats. USC was 6-5 on the road, NC State is 4-6. NC State has a slightly better computer score, but USC had a much better strength of schedule (SOS).
NC State does have a marquee non-conference win in Auburn and another win over an NCAA Tournament team in Syracuse, where USC did not have a win over another at-large team in the 2018 field. USC was also 12-6 in two-bid Pac-12 and reached the conference title game.
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As for this year’s NCAA Tournament field. As of this morning we have NC State in the field, but it is very, very close. We have NC State in Dayton playing in the First Four along with Temple, TCU and Arizona State. Our first four out was St. John’s (last team cut), Indiana, Creighton and Belmont.
Those are about the eight teams to watch for, we think, when it comes to NC State’s chances. We believe that NC State, Ohio State and Temple’s resumes are practically identical and could easily see those going any particular way on the seeding lines. TCU’s poor finish and Arizona State’s low NET may be factors in favor of NC State, but we are struggling in particular with Arizona State.
The Pack ironically got in last year despite being a 64 in the RPI, 30 spots lower than USC. Arizona State is 30 spots lower than NC State in the NET. However, that NC State team had wins over UNC on the road, Duke and Clemson at home and Arizona on a neutral court, all of whom were top 13 in the RPI. It also had a road win at Syracuse and beat Florida State at home, both of whom were NCAA Tournament at-large teams.
Arizona State beat Mississippi State and Utah State on neutral courts and both Kansas and Washington at home. They are not as high a quality of wins as NC State’s were last year, but they are all NCAA Tournament teams, which is two more than this year's Wolfpack team boasts. It also beat Pac-12 Tournament champ Oregon at home. On the flipside, Arizona State has four Q3/4 losses, where NC State only had two last year (and two this year).
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BracketMatrix.com has NC State as the first team out but it also has St. John’s in the field. St. John’s NET of 73 though is a wide gap to overcome. NC State also has better computer scores besides the NET, and St. John’s does not have a non-conference schedule (No. 216) that is worth bragging about. It owns wins over Marquette (twice), Villanova and VCU and its two Q3 losses are better than State’s two were, but our hunch is if there is one that NC State could be above that the bracketologists are missing it's St. John’s.
The other we feel NCSU has a case for having a better profile than is TCU, who has a 10-13 Q1/Q2 record. It does not have a bad loss, played a better schedule and beat three tournament teams compared to two for NC State, including Iowa State on the road. However, it has a poorer road record overall and NC State has better computer numbers. Plus the Pack has a better marquee win thanks to Auburn’s late run.
Again though, it’s very close.
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Teams we think have closer calls than perhaps the experts think include Washington, VCU, Ole Miss and Baylor. VCU ironically may be saved because it did play a very smart schedule. Syracuse is safe but it also does not have a great profile.
