I'm working on some stuff for tomorrow morning, but figured I'd drop some additional nuggets with the official prediction sure to be wrong here.
NCAAs start tomorrow at 11 a.m. ET. ESPNU will be doing whip-around coverage, but going to ESPN3 is the way to go so you can pick and choose the mat and have that full screen with dedicated announcers.
Going into the event, NC State is right in the thick of the trophy race. As a matter of fact, there are five online outlets that update their individual weight class rankings each week and all of them have NC State among the top six, including as high as third:
InterMat - 3rd (5 points behind #2 PSU)
FloWrestling - 4th (0.5 points behind #3 VT, 2 points behind #2 Penn State)
The Open Mat - 4th (3.5 points behind #3 VT, 1.5 points ahead of Nebraska)
TrackWrestling - t4th with VT (2.5 points behind #3 Nebraska, 3.5 points ahead of #6 Arizona State)
WrestleState - 6th (2 points behind #4 VT)
You can see how close the team scores are being projected right now. A major decision (winning by eight or more points in an individual bout) is worth an addition 1 team point, so that gives you an idea of how close some of those margins above.
Like I said in the bracket breakdown I did last week when seeds came out (and updated today due to some small changes in other teams' lineups), NC State’s six top-10 seeds are the third-most nationally, behind Iowa and Missouri, who both had eight in the top 10.
So the Wolfpack has a lot of bullets in the chamber with nine total qualifiers. I feel there are six legitimate All-America contenders, so in my prediction sure to be wrong because of the unpredictability of the tournament — especially this year with limited schedules, no tournaments and questionable seedings — I'll say NC State gets five onto the podium. That would be a program record.
I feel three of the six legit AA contenders are locks (marked with a *): 125 Jakob Camacho*, 141 Tariq Wilson, 157 Hayden Hidlay*, 174 Daniel Bullard, 184 Trent Hidlay* and HWT Deonte Wilson
However, every point is going to matter in this team race. That means consolation wins are going to be important, as soon as a guy drops his first match, in addition to bonus points. The Pack is going to need contributions from everybody, and that's where 165 Thomas Bullard and 133 Jarrett Trombley (as well as 197 Nick Reenan) come in. Bullard would've been in the AA category above, but was up and down this year and got a tough draw based on his seed. If you have me rank the country 1-12, he's in that top 12 at his weight. However, when predicting the top 12 finishers at NCAAs, it's tough to have Bullard in there based on the bracket.
As for Trombley, he split the starting spot this year with freshman Ryan Jack, but still earned the 12 seed for NCAAs. That speaks to the depth of the program (and the ACC - he took fourth at the conference tourney). On FloWrestling's podcast this week, when they did predictions, they had 3 co-hosts. Ben Askren actually picked Trombley to All-American and another had him in the bloodround (the other one might have, he kinda hinted at it, but never explicitly stated it, so I'm not saying he did or didn't). So it's not an NC State homer thing to say Trombley is right at that level as well, national media are stating it.
Team-score wise, I'm crazy enough that I did a full 640 match bracket and tallied up team scores. It's very tight. Important note, I included zero bonus points below because they are so hard to predict (we'll come back to that).
My team scores had Iowa running away with it, as expected, Penn State in second by a pretty decent margin and then only 9 team points — which is nothing — separating third from seventh. For context, win in the championship quarterfinals (and again in the semifinals) is worth six team points.
Currently, without bonus points, the raw team scores are: Michigan is 1.5 points ahead of NC State, who is 2 points ahead of Oklahoma State, who is 3 points ahead of Virginia Tech, who is 2.5 points ahead of Nebraska, etc.
All that said, I could easily see the Wolfpack outscoring Michigan and the others in this tier in bonus points (I don’t see a lot of them outside of heavyweight Mason Parris for U-M, while NC State has several that could score bonus points, especially in the wrestlebacks) so maybe I should say the official prediction sure to be wrong is third.
We’re splitting hairs here, but I think NC State finishes in trophy position. That’s a hell of an accomplishment — only been done twice in ACC history, and it’s never been higher than fourth.
I’m writing something up for the front page, though it probably won’t go into as much detail for my personal picks. I thought you all might be interested in those, however …
NCAAs start tomorrow at 11 a.m. ET. ESPNU will be doing whip-around coverage, but going to ESPN3 is the way to go so you can pick and choose the mat and have that full screen with dedicated announcers.
Going into the event, NC State is right in the thick of the trophy race. As a matter of fact, there are five online outlets that update their individual weight class rankings each week and all of them have NC State among the top six, including as high as third:
InterMat - 3rd (5 points behind #2 PSU)
FloWrestling - 4th (0.5 points behind #3 VT, 2 points behind #2 Penn State)
The Open Mat - 4th (3.5 points behind #3 VT, 1.5 points ahead of Nebraska)
TrackWrestling - t4th with VT (2.5 points behind #3 Nebraska, 3.5 points ahead of #6 Arizona State)
WrestleState - 6th (2 points behind #4 VT)
You can see how close the team scores are being projected right now. A major decision (winning by eight or more points in an individual bout) is worth an addition 1 team point, so that gives you an idea of how close some of those margins above.
Like I said in the bracket breakdown I did last week when seeds came out (and updated today due to some small changes in other teams' lineups), NC State’s six top-10 seeds are the third-most nationally, behind Iowa and Missouri, who both had eight in the top 10.
So the Wolfpack has a lot of bullets in the chamber with nine total qualifiers. I feel there are six legitimate All-America contenders, so in my prediction sure to be wrong because of the unpredictability of the tournament — especially this year with limited schedules, no tournaments and questionable seedings — I'll say NC State gets five onto the podium. That would be a program record.
I feel three of the six legit AA contenders are locks (marked with a *): 125 Jakob Camacho*, 141 Tariq Wilson, 157 Hayden Hidlay*, 174 Daniel Bullard, 184 Trent Hidlay* and HWT Deonte Wilson
However, every point is going to matter in this team race. That means consolation wins are going to be important, as soon as a guy drops his first match, in addition to bonus points. The Pack is going to need contributions from everybody, and that's where 165 Thomas Bullard and 133 Jarrett Trombley (as well as 197 Nick Reenan) come in. Bullard would've been in the AA category above, but was up and down this year and got a tough draw based on his seed. If you have me rank the country 1-12, he's in that top 12 at his weight. However, when predicting the top 12 finishers at NCAAs, it's tough to have Bullard in there based on the bracket.
As for Trombley, he split the starting spot this year with freshman Ryan Jack, but still earned the 12 seed for NCAAs. That speaks to the depth of the program (and the ACC - he took fourth at the conference tourney). On FloWrestling's podcast this week, when they did predictions, they had 3 co-hosts. Ben Askren actually picked Trombley to All-American and another had him in the bloodround (the other one might have, he kinda hinted at it, but never explicitly stated it, so I'm not saying he did or didn't). So it's not an NC State homer thing to say Trombley is right at that level as well, national media are stating it.
Team-score wise, I'm crazy enough that I did a full 640 match bracket and tallied up team scores. It's very tight. Important note, I included zero bonus points below because they are so hard to predict (we'll come back to that).
My team scores had Iowa running away with it, as expected, Penn State in second by a pretty decent margin and then only 9 team points — which is nothing — separating third from seventh. For context, win in the championship quarterfinals (and again in the semifinals) is worth six team points.
Currently, without bonus points, the raw team scores are: Michigan is 1.5 points ahead of NC State, who is 2 points ahead of Oklahoma State, who is 3 points ahead of Virginia Tech, who is 2.5 points ahead of Nebraska, etc.
All that said, I could easily see the Wolfpack outscoring Michigan and the others in this tier in bonus points (I don’t see a lot of them outside of heavyweight Mason Parris for U-M, while NC State has several that could score bonus points, especially in the wrestlebacks) so maybe I should say the official prediction sure to be wrong is third.
We’re splitting hairs here, but I think NC State finishes in trophy position. That’s a hell of an accomplishment — only been done twice in ACC history, and it’s never been higher than fourth.
I’m writing something up for the front page, though it probably won’t go into as much detail for my personal picks. I thought you all might be interested in those, however …
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