I am always amazed at how we, as posters look at recruiting. I don’t have any arguments that schools that consistently recruit at a higher level typically have more talent to work with. I will also say with a few exceptions these schools also have better coaching staffs and built advantages to recruiting.
However, when comparing two schools against each other you cannot really look at something as simple as rival ratings and have a clear comparison of the effectiveness of recruiting. IMO almost every post is a little myopic if it does not start with an honest first assessment of the shape of your roster and the needs that come from this assessment.
UNC is not ranked as high as they are because of the shape of their roster. They get bonus points for two reasons, ESPN and the fact they have Sam Howell. Based on the current roster they seem more accurately ranked 18-25 and we are not far behind. Sam Howel and ESPN are worth a 10 position bonus. Consequently, because we don't have a confirmed gun slinger we lack any bonus points to get us into the top 25. We will have to earn that right in the second game of the season and then earn the right to stay there by how well we play Clemson. We have four games on the road from Mid Oct to Mid Nov. I see a great season as going 4-1 before the bye week. Then winning two games on the road and one at home and going 3-2 during before we we finish at home against Syracuse and UNC. 7-3 going into the final two games provides us the ability get to 9-3. Winn those two games and a bowl game and we will all smile.
Recruiting analysis: Now I am not going to pretend that last year UNC recruited well, but let’s review how we both did and factor in our rosters.
Offense
QB: UNC loses their QB after this year. We have Leary for three more years. They have to get a QB ready to play next year. It can be argued that their pick-up of Mayes is better than our pickup of McLaughlin, however McLaughlin is not needed within the same time frame nor is Morris. I would argue that our back up QB Finley, is as ready and as good as their current back up ( Criswell or Maye). From a recruiting standpoint this is a push.
RB: Our current roster is better than their roster. They have a one year stand in and need to recruit this position well. Our freshman and sophomores are not needed and they need to play there. We have done well with Sumo, Allen and Galloway. They have countered with Hood, Edmunds. Chapman and Hampton. Both of us have done well but we have more proven experience returning with Houston and Person and who knows what draft grade knight will get. Since our guys are sharing the load we should be able to keep them from getting beat up and perhaps stay another year. From a recruiting standpoint measured against the roster it is currently a push. 2023 is a big year for both teams to find playmakers at RB.
WR: We are both in a good position with our rosters for this position. We actually have more returning experience for this year, but UNC talent level of young players is better than ours. However, we did exceptionally well last year with Crowell and Gray. Given these parameters we both can be very selective this year. I think we have an edge on them this year as a position group but we need some improvement from several players to stay at the level of production next year. From a recruiting standpoint neither of us have much of a current advantage and 2023 is a new starting point.
OL: This is always tricky. I think UNC has a very solid starting five and I think we do as well. This is a position where recruiting the last two years is a fair comparison. Last year we got a real tackle (Belton) who is going to play well for us and I believe a center (Cooper) who is the heir apparent to Gipson and perhaps a guard in Gentry. I think this was a good haul. UNC got two potential OT starters in Pounds and Sutton. I think both of us recruited higher numbers in 2020 but the impact is similar, 2 possible starters each. No real advantage. The difference is this year 2022, UNC has recruited two potential OT ( four in two years). We still have some work to do in this area. I do think Vann can be a starter and I also believe Cooper can play guard. We need to recruit some tackles to keep up with them.
TE: I think both teams are a mess with TE recruiting. I don’t think our room is great, but it is better than UNC. . It does not appear that we have any room for a TE recruit this year and we have a lot of unanswered questions in our TE room. UNC has a lot of answered questions, they got a good talent in Nesbitt last year, but their overall room is a mess. UNC needs to grab a TE this year.
Bottom Line, for this year we need to finish with some tackle prospects and UNC needs a TE. If that happens then the real game on recruiting begins next year in 2023.
Defense:
DL: I like our roster. We are both playing 3 DL but playing them differently. I like our room better than their room because our experienced players are better and our depth has more experience. Now they have two freshman, Silver and Ritzie that have huge upsides. However, I think we did just as well with Price and VANN for our scheme and getting Durden as a rental is a big plus for us.
BY all measures our coaches are very happy with our 2022 haul of Cleveland, Campbell and Jackson. However, Shaw, Atkinson, and Jennings is really strong haul for UNC. This gives them a sound foundation. It looks like we have to pick up the pace in 2023 to keep up .
LB: I like our roster. It is better than theirs. I like our backups. I like our recruits. However, UNC has closed the gap with their last two years of recruiting by adding three playmakers and two other solid prospects. Evans, Dilworth, Echols, Cheeks and Hamrick provide a solid foundation. I like our foundation as well. While lacking the same star quality, Wright, Thompson, Poole, Fordham are really solid. However, they will be ahead of us if we don’t find another difference maker like Wilson.
Secondary: They have a lot of talent today in the secondary. It might be the strength of their defense. We are playing catch up to them in the same way they have to do with us at LB except we did it with transfers who have a limited time to play. I don’t think there is that much difference in the last two years of recruiting, However, in 2020 they clearly recruited very well.
I see us being slightly better on D this year. We have better playmakers at LB and they have better playmakers in the secondary. I think we are better in the DL. The difference is they are younger and have recruited better than us in 2021/2022 on the DL side of the ball and their LB talent should start to show through as we lose Wilson/Moore.
The future
When you look at the rosters as the starting point of recruiting, I don't see a reason to sound the alarm. With Howell they have an advantage, take him off the field and I think we are favored. He is the difference for this year. Moving forward they may take a defense that has held them back and make it a strength. We are going to play good defense this year and we ahve the people to fill the holes for the following year. The team will be as successful as Leary takes us and our OL leads us. I think our OL has the chance to be in the top tier of the ACC this year. If Leary is the real deal we have a great chance at beating UNC and having a great year. Do this and we will have a good 2023 recruiting year.
However, when comparing two schools against each other you cannot really look at something as simple as rival ratings and have a clear comparison of the effectiveness of recruiting. IMO almost every post is a little myopic if it does not start with an honest first assessment of the shape of your roster and the needs that come from this assessment.
UNC is not ranked as high as they are because of the shape of their roster. They get bonus points for two reasons, ESPN and the fact they have Sam Howell. Based on the current roster they seem more accurately ranked 18-25 and we are not far behind. Sam Howel and ESPN are worth a 10 position bonus. Consequently, because we don't have a confirmed gun slinger we lack any bonus points to get us into the top 25. We will have to earn that right in the second game of the season and then earn the right to stay there by how well we play Clemson. We have four games on the road from Mid Oct to Mid Nov. I see a great season as going 4-1 before the bye week. Then winning two games on the road and one at home and going 3-2 during before we we finish at home against Syracuse and UNC. 7-3 going into the final two games provides us the ability get to 9-3. Winn those two games and a bowl game and we will all smile.
Recruiting analysis: Now I am not going to pretend that last year UNC recruited well, but let’s review how we both did and factor in our rosters.
Offense
QB: UNC loses their QB after this year. We have Leary for three more years. They have to get a QB ready to play next year. It can be argued that their pick-up of Mayes is better than our pickup of McLaughlin, however McLaughlin is not needed within the same time frame nor is Morris. I would argue that our back up QB Finley, is as ready and as good as their current back up ( Criswell or Maye). From a recruiting standpoint this is a push.
RB: Our current roster is better than their roster. They have a one year stand in and need to recruit this position well. Our freshman and sophomores are not needed and they need to play there. We have done well with Sumo, Allen and Galloway. They have countered with Hood, Edmunds. Chapman and Hampton. Both of us have done well but we have more proven experience returning with Houston and Person and who knows what draft grade knight will get. Since our guys are sharing the load we should be able to keep them from getting beat up and perhaps stay another year. From a recruiting standpoint measured against the roster it is currently a push. 2023 is a big year for both teams to find playmakers at RB.
WR: We are both in a good position with our rosters for this position. We actually have more returning experience for this year, but UNC talent level of young players is better than ours. However, we did exceptionally well last year with Crowell and Gray. Given these parameters we both can be very selective this year. I think we have an edge on them this year as a position group but we need some improvement from several players to stay at the level of production next year. From a recruiting standpoint neither of us have much of a current advantage and 2023 is a new starting point.
OL: This is always tricky. I think UNC has a very solid starting five and I think we do as well. This is a position where recruiting the last two years is a fair comparison. Last year we got a real tackle (Belton) who is going to play well for us and I believe a center (Cooper) who is the heir apparent to Gipson and perhaps a guard in Gentry. I think this was a good haul. UNC got two potential OT starters in Pounds and Sutton. I think both of us recruited higher numbers in 2020 but the impact is similar, 2 possible starters each. No real advantage. The difference is this year 2022, UNC has recruited two potential OT ( four in two years). We still have some work to do in this area. I do think Vann can be a starter and I also believe Cooper can play guard. We need to recruit some tackles to keep up with them.
TE: I think both teams are a mess with TE recruiting. I don’t think our room is great, but it is better than UNC. . It does not appear that we have any room for a TE recruit this year and we have a lot of unanswered questions in our TE room. UNC has a lot of answered questions, they got a good talent in Nesbitt last year, but their overall room is a mess. UNC needs to grab a TE this year.
Bottom Line, for this year we need to finish with some tackle prospects and UNC needs a TE. If that happens then the real game on recruiting begins next year in 2023.
Defense:
DL: I like our roster. We are both playing 3 DL but playing them differently. I like our room better than their room because our experienced players are better and our depth has more experience. Now they have two freshman, Silver and Ritzie that have huge upsides. However, I think we did just as well with Price and VANN for our scheme and getting Durden as a rental is a big plus for us.
BY all measures our coaches are very happy with our 2022 haul of Cleveland, Campbell and Jackson. However, Shaw, Atkinson, and Jennings is really strong haul for UNC. This gives them a sound foundation. It looks like we have to pick up the pace in 2023 to keep up .
LB: I like our roster. It is better than theirs. I like our backups. I like our recruits. However, UNC has closed the gap with their last two years of recruiting by adding three playmakers and two other solid prospects. Evans, Dilworth, Echols, Cheeks and Hamrick provide a solid foundation. I like our foundation as well. While lacking the same star quality, Wright, Thompson, Poole, Fordham are really solid. However, they will be ahead of us if we don’t find another difference maker like Wilson.
Secondary: They have a lot of talent today in the secondary. It might be the strength of their defense. We are playing catch up to them in the same way they have to do with us at LB except we did it with transfers who have a limited time to play. I don’t think there is that much difference in the last two years of recruiting, However, in 2020 they clearly recruited very well.
I see us being slightly better on D this year. We have better playmakers at LB and they have better playmakers in the secondary. I think we are better in the DL. The difference is they are younger and have recruited better than us in 2021/2022 on the DL side of the ball and their LB talent should start to show through as we lose Wilson/Moore.
The future
When you look at the rosters as the starting point of recruiting, I don't see a reason to sound the alarm. With Howell they have an advantage, take him off the field and I think we are favored. He is the difference for this year. Moving forward they may take a defense that has held them back and make it a strength. We are going to play good defense this year and we ahve the people to fill the holes for the following year. The team will be as successful as Leary takes us and our OL leads us. I think our OL has the chance to be in the top tier of the ACC this year. If Leary is the real deal we have a great chance at beating UNC and having a great year. Do this and we will have a good 2023 recruiting year.
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