ESPN Has some oddball quirk in their RPI formula which doesn't seem to match anyone else's calculation. CBS Sports calculates it the same way I do (so it must be right!) and we both get .5760. CBS says that ranks us 52. ESPN calculates it at .5758 which ranks 50. The only RPI that matters is the official NCAA RPI. And as of this morning the NCAA ranks us at 53.
Looking at the four possible outcomes of the next two games, the only combo that improves our RPI by any significant amount is winning both games. Going 1-1 is likely to leave us approximately where we are now and in a position of having to win in the tournament. (I am referrring to the RPI number. It is always possible that teams ahead of us will see their RPI decline enough that our rank improves even with a static RPI number.)
As the numbers work out Syracuse and Clemson are not likely to do anything for our SOS, even could drop it slightly, so our own Winning Percentage is the lever that will move our RPI, or not. Winning both games will likely increase RPI above .5800 and that should drop us down into the mid 40s, maybe low 40s depending on what other teams do. Winning only one of those two games is a lot more problematic, because either of those 1-1 outcomes likely results in our RPI rank staying in the 50s.
We do have an awfully good resume, but going 1-1 against these two teams will not improve it. According to the NCAA Syracuse's RPI is .5686 (60) and their SOS is .5630 (44). Clemson's RPI is .5462 (85) and SOS is .5534 (58). It still may be good enough for a bid, though, because the teams around us in the bubble are not especially impressive.
Tomorrow night is a seriously key game. On paper it looks pretty even, but it's about as close to a must win as we've had.
This post was edited on 3/2 10:40 AM by Beaver
Looking at the four possible outcomes of the next two games, the only combo that improves our RPI by any significant amount is winning both games. Going 1-1 is likely to leave us approximately where we are now and in a position of having to win in the tournament. (I am referrring to the RPI number. It is always possible that teams ahead of us will see their RPI decline enough that our rank improves even with a static RPI number.)
As the numbers work out Syracuse and Clemson are not likely to do anything for our SOS, even could drop it slightly, so our own Winning Percentage is the lever that will move our RPI, or not. Winning both games will likely increase RPI above .5800 and that should drop us down into the mid 40s, maybe low 40s depending on what other teams do. Winning only one of those two games is a lot more problematic, because either of those 1-1 outcomes likely results in our RPI rank staying in the 50s.
We do have an awfully good resume, but going 1-1 against these two teams will not improve it. According to the NCAA Syracuse's RPI is .5686 (60) and their SOS is .5630 (44). Clemson's RPI is .5462 (85) and SOS is .5534 (58). It still may be good enough for a bid, though, because the teams around us in the bubble are not especially impressive.
Tomorrow night is a seriously key game. On paper it looks pretty even, but it's about as close to a must win as we've had.
This post was edited on 3/2 10:40 AM by Beaver
