NCAA brackets will be released March 10 (selection show on NCAA.com at 6 p.m.). Eight of the Wolfpack's 10 starters earned automatic qualifying bids at the ACC Championship — everybody except for fifth-year senior 197-pounder Nick Reenan and freshman 149-pounder Ed Scott.
There are six wildcards at 149 and seven at 197. It's probably too early to really do much analysis on the wildcard chances for Reenan and Scott since four conferences (including the powerhouse Big Ten) have not done their tournaments yet, but where's the fun in that?
The at-large bid criteria includes: head-to-head competition, quality wins, results against common opponents, winning percentage, coaches ranking and conference tournament finish. Both Reenan and Scott placed fourth, one spot away from an auto bid in the ACC, so they will be looked upon favorably for the last criteria.
• Looking at Scott's case (again, four conferences still need to do their tournaments, so this is an incomplete case) — he's currently the second-highest-rated wrestler in the coaches rankings that did not automatically qualify for the five leagues who have done their conference tournament. Navy's Casey Cobb (#19) was first, followed by Scott (#28). Scott's record currently sits at 6-6, but working in his favor will be a win over Duke's Josh Finesilver, who placed third at ACCs to get an auto bid and is now a three-time NCAA qualifier.
Now for the bad news — the Big Ten received only seven allocations at the weight and had 12 wrestlers ranked higher than Scott by the coaches. I don't expect Scott's coaches ranking to climb much based on his performance at ACCs, so if the Big Ten gobbles up a lot of the at-large bids like I would expect, Scott's chances aren't looking great.
• Moving on to Reenan, I think he has name recognition based on his big-time freestyle success and that will help his case. At No. 25, he's also the highest-ranked wrestler from this past weekend that did not receive an auto bid (three more in the top 33 — two from the MAC and one from the SoCon — are also vying for wildcards … and two of those guys have a higher win percentage than Reenan's 6-4 record on the year).
Working against Reenan will be a lack of quality wins. The best guys he beat were Duke's Kaden Russell and VT's Andy Smith at ACCs, but neither appeared in the last coaches rankings. Also working against him, similar to 149, is that the Big Ten had nine ranked ahead of him in the coaches rankings and they got only 6 automatic berths.
I do like Reenan's chances slightly better than Scott, but a lot of that is due to the weight having one more wildcard (seven, compared to six at 149). But a lot will depend on how Big Tens shake out (and the new coaches rankings, I believe one more set is due before the at-large committee meets).
I've seen conflicting info. on when wildcards will be released — FloWrestling says March 9, NCAA.com says March 10, so I'd lean towards the latter. I'm honestly not sure if they will be released at the same time as the brackets, but IIRC it's been before that in years past (maybe even the day before).
NCAAs are March 18-20 in St. Louis, and the Wolfpack will definitely be in contention for an NCAA Trophy (top-four finish).
NC State in the national rankings
Here's where NC State ranks as a team in five outlet's Tournament rankings, which take their individual rankings and apply them to a scoring rubric that grants No. 1 first-place (advancement and placement) points from NCAAs, No. 2 second, etc.:
• FloWrestling (Flo) - No. 3 (1.5 points behind No. 2 Virginia Tech, 3 points ahead of No. 4 Penn State)
• The Open Mat (TOM) - No. 4 (1.5 points behind No. 3 Nebraska, 2 points ahead of No. 5 Virginia Tech and only 4.5 points ahead of No. 7 Arizona State)
• TrackWrestling (Track) - No. 4 (10 points behind No. 3 Nebraska, 1 point ahead of No. 5 Virginia Tech and two points ahead of No. 6 Oklahoma State)
• InterMat (IM) - No. 3 (24.5 points behind No. 2 Penn State and 8 points ahead of No. 4 Oklahoma State)
• WrestleStat (WS) - No. 5 (only 2 points behind No. 3 Michigan, 1 point behind No. 4 Nebraska and 4 points ahead of No. 6 Virginia Tech)
Individuals in updated national rankings
125 Jakob Camacho
Flo - 3
TOM - 7
Track - 5
IM - 6
WS - 3
133 Jarrett Trombley
Flo - 8
TOM - 13
Track - 9
IM - 10
WS - 15
141 Tariq Wilson
Flo - 7
TOM - 5
Track - 7
IM - 4
WS - 8
149 Ed Scott
Flo - NR (only do a top 25)
TOM - 31
Track - 31
IM - NR (only do a top 20)
WS - 18
157 Hayden Hidlay
Flo - 2
TOM - 2
Track - 2
IM - 2
WS - 1
165 Thomas Bullard
Flo - 11
TOM - 18
Track - 12
IM - 18
WS - 12
174 Daniel Bullard
Flo - 12
TOM - 7
Track - 8
IM - 8
WS - 8
184 Trent Hidlay
Flo - 1
TOM - 3
Track - 3
IM - 2
WS - 3
197 Nick Reenan
Flo - NR in top 25
TOM - 20
Track - NR in top 33
IM - NR in top 20
WS - 18
HWT Deonte Wilson
Flo - 22
TOM - 16
Track - 16
IM - 11
WS - 18
There are six wildcards at 149 and seven at 197. It's probably too early to really do much analysis on the wildcard chances for Reenan and Scott since four conferences (including the powerhouse Big Ten) have not done their tournaments yet, but where's the fun in that?
The at-large bid criteria includes: head-to-head competition, quality wins, results against common opponents, winning percentage, coaches ranking and conference tournament finish. Both Reenan and Scott placed fourth, one spot away from an auto bid in the ACC, so they will be looked upon favorably for the last criteria.
• Looking at Scott's case (again, four conferences still need to do their tournaments, so this is an incomplete case) — he's currently the second-highest-rated wrestler in the coaches rankings that did not automatically qualify for the five leagues who have done their conference tournament. Navy's Casey Cobb (#19) was first, followed by Scott (#28). Scott's record currently sits at 6-6, but working in his favor will be a win over Duke's Josh Finesilver, who placed third at ACCs to get an auto bid and is now a three-time NCAA qualifier.
Now for the bad news — the Big Ten received only seven allocations at the weight and had 12 wrestlers ranked higher than Scott by the coaches. I don't expect Scott's coaches ranking to climb much based on his performance at ACCs, so if the Big Ten gobbles up a lot of the at-large bids like I would expect, Scott's chances aren't looking great.
• Moving on to Reenan, I think he has name recognition based on his big-time freestyle success and that will help his case. At No. 25, he's also the highest-ranked wrestler from this past weekend that did not receive an auto bid (three more in the top 33 — two from the MAC and one from the SoCon — are also vying for wildcards … and two of those guys have a higher win percentage than Reenan's 6-4 record on the year).
Working against Reenan will be a lack of quality wins. The best guys he beat were Duke's Kaden Russell and VT's Andy Smith at ACCs, but neither appeared in the last coaches rankings. Also working against him, similar to 149, is that the Big Ten had nine ranked ahead of him in the coaches rankings and they got only 6 automatic berths.
I do like Reenan's chances slightly better than Scott, but a lot of that is due to the weight having one more wildcard (seven, compared to six at 149). But a lot will depend on how Big Tens shake out (and the new coaches rankings, I believe one more set is due before the at-large committee meets).
I've seen conflicting info. on when wildcards will be released — FloWrestling says March 9, NCAA.com says March 10, so I'd lean towards the latter. I'm honestly not sure if they will be released at the same time as the brackets, but IIRC it's been before that in years past (maybe even the day before).
NCAAs are March 18-20 in St. Louis, and the Wolfpack will definitely be in contention for an NCAA Trophy (top-four finish).
NC State in the national rankings
Here's where NC State ranks as a team in five outlet's Tournament rankings, which take their individual rankings and apply them to a scoring rubric that grants No. 1 first-place (advancement and placement) points from NCAAs, No. 2 second, etc.:
• FloWrestling (Flo) - No. 3 (1.5 points behind No. 2 Virginia Tech, 3 points ahead of No. 4 Penn State)
• The Open Mat (TOM) - No. 4 (1.5 points behind No. 3 Nebraska, 2 points ahead of No. 5 Virginia Tech and only 4.5 points ahead of No. 7 Arizona State)
• TrackWrestling (Track) - No. 4 (10 points behind No. 3 Nebraska, 1 point ahead of No. 5 Virginia Tech and two points ahead of No. 6 Oklahoma State)
• InterMat (IM) - No. 3 (24.5 points behind No. 2 Penn State and 8 points ahead of No. 4 Oklahoma State)
• WrestleStat (WS) - No. 5 (only 2 points behind No. 3 Michigan, 1 point behind No. 4 Nebraska and 4 points ahead of No. 6 Virginia Tech)
Individuals in updated national rankings
125 Jakob Camacho
Flo - 3
TOM - 7
Track - 5
IM - 6
WS - 3
133 Jarrett Trombley
Flo - 8
TOM - 13
Track - 9
IM - 10
WS - 15
141 Tariq Wilson
Flo - 7
TOM - 5
Track - 7
IM - 4
WS - 8
149 Ed Scott
Flo - NR (only do a top 25)
TOM - 31
Track - 31
IM - NR (only do a top 20)
WS - 18
157 Hayden Hidlay
Flo - 2
TOM - 2
Track - 2
IM - 2
WS - 1
165 Thomas Bullard
Flo - 11
TOM - 18
Track - 12
IM - 18
WS - 12
174 Daniel Bullard
Flo - 12
TOM - 7
Track - 8
IM - 8
WS - 8
184 Trent Hidlay
Flo - 1
TOM - 3
Track - 3
IM - 2
WS - 3
197 Nick Reenan
Flo - NR in top 25
TOM - 20
Track - NR in top 33
IM - NR in top 20
WS - 18
HWT Deonte Wilson
Flo - 22
TOM - 16
Track - 16
IM - 11
WS - 18
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