It is a Big Week for Wolfpack Wrestling: We have PITT in a dual who upset VT at VT and who just ran through UNC. The ACC now has three highly ranked teams in the NCAA. Depending on which ranking service you can say 3 out of the 10-12 best teams are in the ACC.
Before I get into the match up against Pitt this week, I check the current individuals rankings after last Friday matches and scored the ACC tournament based on rankings without adding any extra points for winning a match by a MD, TF or Fall. Because we are expected to finish in the top three in every weight class, VT in eight weight classes and Pitt in six weight classes, we erase a deficit from Pitt and VT having more potential champions than State and thus mathematically have a 4-6 point cushion over Pitt and VT who tie. A one match change in the top three placements of seven of the 10 weight classes or VT or Pitt scoring four more total criteria points during the tournament would provide either the victory. UPDATE. I made a slight change to finishes in two different weight classes that results in Pitt and State with identical scores and VT two points behind.
The beautiful thing about wrestling is during tournament time, stats are for seedings and you do your talking on the Mats…. And the Mats for the ACC tournament are in Reynolds this year.
Friday night against Pitt at Reynolds will be close: Here is my prediction:
125: Jarret Trombley is beginning to settle into his new weight cut from 133. He has struggled at times but defeated VT Eddie Ventresca in Sudden death and then followed with impressive wins over Duke and UVA. I think Trombley should win in a close decision, but this is a match Pitt could flip.
133: Kia Orine is going against a very experienced Micky Phillippi who beat Orine as a freshman 10-1 but had a closer match last year but lost 4-1. Phillippi has been wrestling well and just recently beat VT Sam Latona in their dual meet. I would expect Phillippi to win by decision.
141: Ryan jack has been wrestling great and is ranked anywhere in different publications from 4th to 7th. His lone loss is a 5-4 loss to #3 Brock hardy who he beat earlier in the year 9-7. He is wrestling Matthew Cole who is ranked # 1 by wrestle stat but as low as 4th in other rankings. Last year Cole beat Jack in two close decisions. Recently, I believe Jack is wrestling slightly better than COLE as he has been more active, however neither of them are scoring a lot of points. Cole will be favored but this is a match we could flip.
149: Jackson Arrington is growing up fast. Not as fast a fellow freshman phenom Caleb Henson from VT but both Henson and Arrington seem to be better than anyone else in the ACC by a decent margin. I think Arrington not only wins but this could be a bonus point opportunity as Arrington is active and score points.
157: Scott will be highly favored to win, and this match is a bonus point opportunity.
165: Currently this weight class is in flux for the Pack. Matt Singleton has shown some promise by dropping down to this weight class. Derek Fields needs more time to develop but flashes good potential. Pitt's Holden Heller is wrestling well and will be favored no matter who wrestles for State but I would not be surprised if Singleton wrestled we do not steal this match.
After six matches we should have comfortably won two matches at 149/157 and won a close match at 125. They should have won three matches at 133/141/165 but I expect the Jack/Cole match to be close and we could steal a victory at 165. If Pitt wins at 125, we will have to win at 141 or 165 to keep pace. I think we have a good chance to score MD points at 157 and maybe at 149. Let’s give us a 10-9 edge going into the final four weights which on paper suggest Pitt with a 3-1 edge.
174: This is a toss up as Alex Faison and Luca Augustine seem equal. This match may be the determinate of who wins the dual. Augustine just beat a solid wrestler from UNC, Clay Lautt and Gaitan from Iowa state in his last two matches and thus I believe he should be favored .
184: We have Trent HIdlay, but they have a capable wrestler in Reece Heller. I think we need a big outing from Hilday just like he just did against UVA. I am going to suggest he wins by a MD as he will be on a mission.
Now we are going into the last two weight class with marque match ups at 197 and 285 where Pitt will be favored. The expectation is that we will be ahead by 14-12 or 15-12. Unless we flip 141 or 165 or win 174 and hold on at 125 we will not have a big enough lead to win unless we win one of these two matches.
197: Trumble against the crafted Nino Bonaccorsi. Trumble is struggling scoring points lately and has allowed his last two opponents the ability to turn his matches into a one move matches which resulted in an upset loss to Andy Smith from VT. Bonaccorsi is 12-0 this year with wins over # 2 Michael Beard, who beat Trumble earlier in the year and last week beat # 6 Bastida from Iowa State. Bonaccorsi is the favorite because he is currently wrestling at a higher level than Trumble, but Trumble is 2-1 against Bonaccorsi in head to heads. I am giving Bonaccorsi the nod because he is wrestling so well.
285: Trephan is wrestling so well and is so much improved. His only losses are to Mason Paris the # 1 ranked 285 by decision and two close decisions to Harvard’s Slavikoursi who is 10th ranked. Pitt has a super freshman in Dayton Pitzer who is ranked # 6 to Trephan who is ranked 9th. Pitzer just took a loss last weekend to the 15th ranked 285. Call it a gut instinct but Trephan is just wrestling so well that I believe he wins in a close decision.
Final score: There is so many ways this can go but overall, I see us winning five weight classes 125, 149, 157, 184, 285 and Pitt winning five weight classes 133, 141, 165 ,174, 197. The difference is we will score a few wins by MD which should give us the edge. I think we have one other edge that I see us potentially flipping 3 matches to our side and them only potentially flipping two matches to their side 125/285.
Before I get into the match up against Pitt this week, I check the current individuals rankings after last Friday matches and scored the ACC tournament based on rankings without adding any extra points for winning a match by a MD, TF or Fall. Because we are expected to finish in the top three in every weight class, VT in eight weight classes and Pitt in six weight classes, we erase a deficit from Pitt and VT having more potential champions than State and thus mathematically have a 4-6 point cushion over Pitt and VT who tie. A one match change in the top three placements of seven of the 10 weight classes or VT or Pitt scoring four more total criteria points during the tournament would provide either the victory. UPDATE. I made a slight change to finishes in two different weight classes that results in Pitt and State with identical scores and VT two points behind.
The beautiful thing about wrestling is during tournament time, stats are for seedings and you do your talking on the Mats…. And the Mats for the ACC tournament are in Reynolds this year.
Friday night against Pitt at Reynolds will be close: Here is my prediction:
125: Jarret Trombley is beginning to settle into his new weight cut from 133. He has struggled at times but defeated VT Eddie Ventresca in Sudden death and then followed with impressive wins over Duke and UVA. I think Trombley should win in a close decision, but this is a match Pitt could flip.
133: Kia Orine is going against a very experienced Micky Phillippi who beat Orine as a freshman 10-1 but had a closer match last year but lost 4-1. Phillippi has been wrestling well and just recently beat VT Sam Latona in their dual meet. I would expect Phillippi to win by decision.
141: Ryan jack has been wrestling great and is ranked anywhere in different publications from 4th to 7th. His lone loss is a 5-4 loss to #3 Brock hardy who he beat earlier in the year 9-7. He is wrestling Matthew Cole who is ranked # 1 by wrestle stat but as low as 4th in other rankings. Last year Cole beat Jack in two close decisions. Recently, I believe Jack is wrestling slightly better than COLE as he has been more active, however neither of them are scoring a lot of points. Cole will be favored but this is a match we could flip.
149: Jackson Arrington is growing up fast. Not as fast a fellow freshman phenom Caleb Henson from VT but both Henson and Arrington seem to be better than anyone else in the ACC by a decent margin. I think Arrington not only wins but this could be a bonus point opportunity as Arrington is active and score points.
157: Scott will be highly favored to win, and this match is a bonus point opportunity.
165: Currently this weight class is in flux for the Pack. Matt Singleton has shown some promise by dropping down to this weight class. Derek Fields needs more time to develop but flashes good potential. Pitt's Holden Heller is wrestling well and will be favored no matter who wrestles for State but I would not be surprised if Singleton wrestled we do not steal this match.
After six matches we should have comfortably won two matches at 149/157 and won a close match at 125. They should have won three matches at 133/141/165 but I expect the Jack/Cole match to be close and we could steal a victory at 165. If Pitt wins at 125, we will have to win at 141 or 165 to keep pace. I think we have a good chance to score MD points at 157 and maybe at 149. Let’s give us a 10-9 edge going into the final four weights which on paper suggest Pitt with a 3-1 edge.
174: This is a toss up as Alex Faison and Luca Augustine seem equal. This match may be the determinate of who wins the dual. Augustine just beat a solid wrestler from UNC, Clay Lautt and Gaitan from Iowa state in his last two matches and thus I believe he should be favored .
184: We have Trent HIdlay, but they have a capable wrestler in Reece Heller. I think we need a big outing from Hilday just like he just did against UVA. I am going to suggest he wins by a MD as he will be on a mission.
Now we are going into the last two weight class with marque match ups at 197 and 285 where Pitt will be favored. The expectation is that we will be ahead by 14-12 or 15-12. Unless we flip 141 or 165 or win 174 and hold on at 125 we will not have a big enough lead to win unless we win one of these two matches.
197: Trumble against the crafted Nino Bonaccorsi. Trumble is struggling scoring points lately and has allowed his last two opponents the ability to turn his matches into a one move matches which resulted in an upset loss to Andy Smith from VT. Bonaccorsi is 12-0 this year with wins over # 2 Michael Beard, who beat Trumble earlier in the year and last week beat # 6 Bastida from Iowa State. Bonaccorsi is the favorite because he is currently wrestling at a higher level than Trumble, but Trumble is 2-1 against Bonaccorsi in head to heads. I am giving Bonaccorsi the nod because he is wrestling so well.
285: Trephan is wrestling so well and is so much improved. His only losses are to Mason Paris the # 1 ranked 285 by decision and two close decisions to Harvard’s Slavikoursi who is 10th ranked. Pitt has a super freshman in Dayton Pitzer who is ranked # 6 to Trephan who is ranked 9th. Pitzer just took a loss last weekend to the 15th ranked 285. Call it a gut instinct but Trephan is just wrestling so well that I believe he wins in a close decision.
Final score: There is so many ways this can go but overall, I see us winning five weight classes 125, 149, 157, 184, 285 and Pitt winning five weight classes 133, 141, 165 ,174, 197. The difference is we will score a few wins by MD which should give us the edge. I think we have one other edge that I see us potentially flipping 3 matches to our side and them only potentially flipping two matches to their side 125/285.
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