• After the NCAA Tournament brackets were announced Sunday evening, the wait is now on. Our hunch is that the search to replace head coach Mark Gottfried is about to get really quiet over the next week, at least, as the search appears to be set up well to go smoothly and there is obviously no interest in jeopardizing any of that.
We should also note that we do not believe any talks have been had yet with perspective candidates outside back channel communications.
Looking at the brackets, some of the leading contenders for NC State’s vacancy have tough first weekends. VCU and head coach Will Wade drew Saint Mary’s, which went 28-1 against teams not named Gonzaga this year, and if VCU were to prevail it would, in all likelihood, get No. 2 Arizona, Pac-12 champions and a popular Final Four pick.
UNC Wilmington and head coach Kevin Keatts were seeded 12th and have No. 5 seed Virginia in an interesting contrast of styles and pace. The winner of that game plays the winner of Florida-East Tennessee State in round two. Interestingly, on the various Bracketology shows Sunday, UNCW seemed to be a popular upset pick in the first round.
Archie Miller’s Dayton Fliers may have gotten one of the toughest draws. On paper, Wichita State, coached by Wolfpack nation favorite Gregg Marshall, deserved to be seeded around No. 10, which is what they got. But few teams probably wanted to get the Shockers (30-4) in the first or second round. Whoever wins that game will probably get No. 2 seed Kentucky in the second round.
Thus most handicappers would probably have all three of those respective candidates done after the first weekend of the tournament.
• As of last week, the smart money was on Keatts and Wade against the field. After this weekend, we would probably slightly raise the odds/potential of a potential dark horse candidate emerging, but still put the favoritism on Wade and Keatts.
• We received some interesting feedback over the weekend from various regional high school coaches and summer traveling programs, and the verdict was fairly unanimous: NC State probably could not go wrong with either Wade or Keatts.
As one prominent regional coach told us (paraphrasing): “It’s tough to choose between one of them because they are both like family.” One significant summer program did declare themselves big Wade fans, but a majority probably favored Keatts if they had to pick one.
Discontent with either of the two though was practically non-existent.
• It will be interesting to see how Illinois’ search is going to play out. The Illini have reportedly decided against using a search firm to assist. In our own personal experience covering the searches, we believe that Lee Fowler did not use one in 2006 to replace Herb Sendek, and that search was botched in multiple ways. Since then, if we recall correctly, the Pack has used search firms each time, and the results have been much smoother. (Even in 2011 when Sidney Lowe was fired, had Shaka Smart not gone on a surprising Final Four run that search probably would have resulted in a different perception of its management.)
The early viewpoint from a distance seems to paint a picture that Illinois believes it will be the big fish in the pond this year and is aiming high. Their first choice appeared to have been former New Orleans Pelicans head coach Monty Williams, who had two winning seasons and playoff appearances in his five years there. But reports indicated Williams would not be a candidate (over an apparent lack of interest in recruiting and the other demands of a college job during the offseason).
There is also talk that Illinois could aggressively go after Miller and Marshall. All of this runs contrary to the early speculation that Cal’s Cuonzo Martin would be the obvious man to replace John Groce. The Chicago Tribune listed Martin, Keatts, Miller and Marshall as four candidates to watch.
• Indiana accepted a bid into the NIT, where it will play at Georgia Tech in the first round. Curiously, the Hoosiers passed on the opportunity to host that game. There appears to be little movement on that coaching front, which could play into the favor of schools like NC State, Illinois, Missouri and LSU that are already actively searching for their replacements.
The longer Indiana waits to decide, the better luck the other programs can move on their top candidates.
Interestingly, Crean went out recruiting (presumably for Indiana) after getting bounced from the Big Ten Tournament.
One wild speculation scenario: Fred Hoiberg may be in hot water with the Chicago Bulls. Crean's buyout reportedly decreases significantly on June 1. The Bulls' season should be over at that point (the regular season ends April 12 and they are on the playoffs bubble). Hoiberg would be a home run hire after his success at Iowa State.
We should also note that we do not believe any talks have been had yet with perspective candidates outside back channel communications.
Looking at the brackets, some of the leading contenders for NC State’s vacancy have tough first weekends. VCU and head coach Will Wade drew Saint Mary’s, which went 28-1 against teams not named Gonzaga this year, and if VCU were to prevail it would, in all likelihood, get No. 2 Arizona, Pac-12 champions and a popular Final Four pick.
UNC Wilmington and head coach Kevin Keatts were seeded 12th and have No. 5 seed Virginia in an interesting contrast of styles and pace. The winner of that game plays the winner of Florida-East Tennessee State in round two. Interestingly, on the various Bracketology shows Sunday, UNCW seemed to be a popular upset pick in the first round.
Archie Miller’s Dayton Fliers may have gotten one of the toughest draws. On paper, Wichita State, coached by Wolfpack nation favorite Gregg Marshall, deserved to be seeded around No. 10, which is what they got. But few teams probably wanted to get the Shockers (30-4) in the first or second round. Whoever wins that game will probably get No. 2 seed Kentucky in the second round.
Thus most handicappers would probably have all three of those respective candidates done after the first weekend of the tournament.
• As of last week, the smart money was on Keatts and Wade against the field. After this weekend, we would probably slightly raise the odds/potential of a potential dark horse candidate emerging, but still put the favoritism on Wade and Keatts.
• We received some interesting feedback over the weekend from various regional high school coaches and summer traveling programs, and the verdict was fairly unanimous: NC State probably could not go wrong with either Wade or Keatts.
As one prominent regional coach told us (paraphrasing): “It’s tough to choose between one of them because they are both like family.” One significant summer program did declare themselves big Wade fans, but a majority probably favored Keatts if they had to pick one.
Discontent with either of the two though was practically non-existent.
• It will be interesting to see how Illinois’ search is going to play out. The Illini have reportedly decided against using a search firm to assist. In our own personal experience covering the searches, we believe that Lee Fowler did not use one in 2006 to replace Herb Sendek, and that search was botched in multiple ways. Since then, if we recall correctly, the Pack has used search firms each time, and the results have been much smoother. (Even in 2011 when Sidney Lowe was fired, had Shaka Smart not gone on a surprising Final Four run that search probably would have resulted in a different perception of its management.)
The early viewpoint from a distance seems to paint a picture that Illinois believes it will be the big fish in the pond this year and is aiming high. Their first choice appeared to have been former New Orleans Pelicans head coach Monty Williams, who had two winning seasons and playoff appearances in his five years there. But reports indicated Williams would not be a candidate (over an apparent lack of interest in recruiting and the other demands of a college job during the offseason).
There is also talk that Illinois could aggressively go after Miller and Marshall. All of this runs contrary to the early speculation that Cal’s Cuonzo Martin would be the obvious man to replace John Groce. The Chicago Tribune listed Martin, Keatts, Miller and Marshall as four candidates to watch.
• Indiana accepted a bid into the NIT, where it will play at Georgia Tech in the first round. Curiously, the Hoosiers passed on the opportunity to host that game. There appears to be little movement on that coaching front, which could play into the favor of schools like NC State, Illinois, Missouri and LSU that are already actively searching for their replacements.
The longer Indiana waits to decide, the better luck the other programs can move on their top candidates.
Interestingly, Crean went out recruiting (presumably for Indiana) after getting bounced from the Big Ten Tournament.
One wild speculation scenario: Fred Hoiberg may be in hot water with the Chicago Bulls. Crean's buyout reportedly decreases significantly on June 1. The Bulls' season should be over at that point (the regular season ends April 12 and they are on the playoffs bubble). Hoiberg would be a home run hire after his success at Iowa State.
