"To further his duplicitous, insane response, he says, well, you should have been smart and gotten out of the market."
Basser, down deep I believe you are a pretty decent guy, you just have some misguided political beliefs that I disagree with. Giving you the benefit of the doubt I am going to share with you the most important investing advice you might ever get.
Go to a charting package, I subscribe to stockcharts.com. There is a free version that this should work on, but there are other charting packages as well.
Create a WEEKLY chart of SPY. Put a 39 week simple moving average on the chart. (It could be any equity, index, ETF, stock, does not matter, just using SPY as an example of a tradable ETF that also represents the overall market.)
When the price of SPY is above the 39 week simple moving average this indicates the market is currently on strong uptrend and it is appropriate to be invested in the market, and obviously SPY. When the price of SPY falls below the 39 week simple moving average this indicates the market has moved to a downtrend and extreme caution needs to be taken.
Take a look at the inserted chart. This bullish crossover for SPY took place about 10/30/23 and from then to the highest high moved up about 47%. Also notice that for most of December - February SPY consolidated, eventually to go higher or lower, no one knows.
However, after being up 47% since late 2023 the best bet would be some level of correction, not an immediate continuation higher. The breakdown began the week of March 3rd when the price broke below the 39 week simple moving average and for the time being a bullish market has reverted to a bearish market.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=SPY&a=1807141526&p=W&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p75690459682
It is really that simple, either the price is above the 39 week simple moving average or it is not. If you don’t believe it works go back and look at this chart for the dotcom bubble crash, housing bubble crash, covid crash, and other numerous approaching 20% crashes.