Some midday-after musings on the latest national wrestling rankings…
• From a team perspective, NC State solidified the No. 2 spot in the FloWrestling dual rankings with its win over VT. In the coaches' poll (which is considered “official”), they closed the gap with No. 2 Penn State to just five points … however, with only a dual at Duke remaining, I doubt they will be able to tie the all-time school record and reach No. 2.
A win over Duke is assured, but it won't do anything to help NC State. Given that’s how the ranking shook out this week, their only chance would be a loss from Iowa (who is 12-0 and faces No. 9 Oklahoma State this weekend) and/or Penn State (who is 11-2 but isn't losing to American this weekend). Final poll comes out Feb. 25.
• Again, while duals are awesome, (unfortunately) dual rankings don't really mean a whole lot, what really matters are tournament rankings (i.e. how scoring is done at ACCs and NCAAs).
The Flo national tournament rankings (my preferred poll) saw NC State rise from 11 to tied for 8th in the last week. However, it's a four-way tie for eighth between Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska and NCSU, so it’s arguable if they really moved up. Those teams tied for eighth have quite a bit of distance between them (40.5 team points) and No. 12 (Oklahoma State, 34.5).
The eighth-place teams trail No. 7 Minnesota by 4.5 points, Minnesota trails No. 6 Arizona State by four points, Arizona State trails No. 5 Princeton by 1 point … so NCSU and the others that are tied for eighth trail Princeton by just 9.5 points (which isn’t a whole lot — a fourth-place finisher earns 9 team points, which doesn’t count any bonus/advancement points … 1 extra point for major decision, 1.5 for tech fall, 2 for pin, plus 1 point for championship bracket advancement and 0.5 for consolation bracket advancement).
So NC State is certainly within striking distance of fifth in this rubric, but it's going to be tough to break into the top four (No. 4 Wisconsin was 16.5 points ahead of the eighth-place teams). Tough, but still doable if guys overachieve from where they stand now. I'll lay that out below with some individual national rankings thoughts:
• At 125, redshirt freshman Jakob Camacho only rose one spot nationally, moving ahead of the man he beat vs. Virginia Tech, Joey Prata, who went from 18th to 24th. However, that result had major ACC seeding implications and established Camacho as the ACC’s No. 2 seed. That's big, but he's likely going to have to beat Prata again to reach the finals.
Back to NCAAs, Camacho doesn't have wins over anybody ranked ahead of him nationally, and has lost to some below him, but he's wrestling his best at the right time. NC State could really receive a boost by him reaching the blood round and basically hopping up a tier from the teens to that 9-12 range (or better).
• It's even tighter at 133 in the conference after No. 1. Micky Phillippi of Pitt ranks 6th nationally then the bottom of the top 25 is full of ACC — redshirt frosh Jarrett Trombley at No. 23, VA's Louie Hayes at No. 24 and VT's Collin Gerardi at No. 25.
Trombley has wins over Hayes and Gerardi, and hung tough with Phillippi, but lost to UNC's Jamie Hernandez (1-0; Hernandez is unranked). Will be very interesting to see how seeding shakes out here at the ACC, though this weekend could help determine some of that (mainly UNC-UVA Friday night) … the key will be avoiding the 4 seed, which I think Trombley should be able to do but I don't have full ACC individual results in front of me.
• Although Mitch Moore's win over redshirt junior Tariq Wilson didn't move the Hokie above the Wolfpacker, it sunk Wilson 2 spots in NCAA ranks to No. 13. He maintains a one-slot edge on Zach Sherman of UNC, while Moore checks in at No. 19. There's no clear favorite here within the ACC, and I have no idea how seeding will shake out — Moore beat Wilson, Wilson beat Sherman, Sherman beat Moore.
This weight will provide somebody with some hugely important points at ACCs, but the reality is for NCSU to accomplish their NCAA goals, Wilson needs to be an All-American.
• The ACC only has one 149-pounder in the national rankings — No. 3 Austin O'Connor of UNC. I suspect VT's Bryce Andonian will beat Pitt's Luke Kemerer this weekend to lock up the No. 2 seed in the ACC, and Leitten is the likely 3 if everything this weekend goes chalk. Leitten simply has to be better than he was last Friday at ACCs.
• Similar to a lot of these weights, there's one big favorite within the ACC, and it's NC State's second-ranked Hayden Hidlay. Despite that statement, there's still a slew of high-quality wrestlers from the league at this weight — No. 11 A.C. Headlee (UNC), No. 12 BC LaPrade (VT) and even if he's not in the national rankings right now Pitt's Taleb Rahmani is a tough dude who has had a lot of postseason success in the past (blood round at NCAAs last year and round of 16 in 2017). Rahmani is the definition of a postseason landmine — his record may be 14-8 but no high seed wants to see him early in a bracket.
• Within the league, 165 is an absolute mess. Redshirt junior Thomas Bullard (now No. 8 nationally) didn't face UNC's Kennedy Monday (ranked No. 13 by Flo), but he has beaten the other three so far, including No. 14 Jake Wentzel twice and preseason favorite David McFadden of VT (was No. 7, now No. 9 nationally). The three-time All-American McFadden has lost to Monday and Bullard; Monday beat Wentzel but also has some questionable losses.
If I’m seeding it right now I probably say: 1. Bullard, 2. Monday, 3. McFadden, 4. Wentzel … but it’s tough to say what they’ll do right now. It’d be nuts to have a possible four-time AA as the 4, but that’s what the head-to-head results say to me.
The above would be best-case scenario for NCSU. For NCAAs, Bullard being an All-American would be a huge boost to NCSU, and he’s wrestling like one (shameless plug, like I wrote about Saturday morning: https://ncstate.rivals.com/news/five-takeaways-from-nc-state-wrestling-s-win-over-virginia-tech)
• 174 is another ultra-competitive weight. Pitt’s Gregg Harvey is currently No. 15 in the land, one spot ahead of Daniel Bullard. Harvey earned that with a 10-8 win over Bullard Feb. 1. Those are the only ones in the national rankings from the league, but Duke’s Mason Eaglin is probably their best wrestler and probably on the national top-25 bubble. However, this weight class is a mess after the top two, so I won’t even try to predict how it stacks up 1-6 right now.
All that said, Bullard can win this weight and that would be a monster boost for NC State’s ACC title hopes. I don’t know he’s ready to quite break through on an NCAA level like his brother, but outside of the Harvey loss he has won his other last 10 matches.
• Redshirt freshman Trent Hidlay is No. 3 in the country but No. 2 in the ACC behind national No. 2 Hunter Bolen of Virginia Tech. Hidlay will have to get by No. 7 Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt) to force a rematch with Bolen in the ACC finals, but that shouldn’t be an issue.
A third-place NCAA finish, at this weight, would be an excellent showing for Hidlay, but there are dangerous guys ranked behind him — No. 5 Lou DePrez (Binghamton) has split with Hidlay this year and has the most recent win, while No. 8 Aaron Brooks (Penn State) beat Hidlay in the Fargo finals when they were both in high school and is a guy that I feel is underranked since being pulled out of redshirt. Brooks is 11-1 with the loss against No. 11 Taylor Venz (Nebraska), who has been really up and down this year but finished fourth at the weight in 2018.
Not saying any of these guys are better than Hidlay, just trying to explain how impressive a third-place finish would be (though I know he’s gunning for an NCAA title).
• At 197, it’s UVA’s Jay Aiello (No. 7 nationally) and everybody else within the ACC (nobody else cracks the top 25). Unfortunately, given health questions and everything else, NC State seems to be looking up at everybody else at the weight (except for maybe Duke).
• I basically broke down why sophomore Deonte Wilson is the ACC’s second-best heavyweight in my column Saturday morning. Although he has beaten everybody in the league except for No. 10 Demetrius Thomas (Pitt), he only cracked Flo’s national rankings at No. 24, one spot ahead of VT’s John Borst (who was No. 20 before falling to Wilson) and four slots behind UVA’s Quinn Miller (who he beat 5-1 Jan. 24).
Wilson’s ranking is probably due to a few questionable losses on the resume, though since Jan. 1 he’s only lost to Thomas twice and then a pair of one-pointers to ND State’s Brandon Metz (No. 22) and Hofstra’s Zach Knighton-Ward (unranked). I question Miller being ranked ahead of Wilson and am not sure he has a strong enough resume to justify that (though, looking at it objectively, Wilson’s resume didn’t really have any notable notches before this recent stretch, but he did beat Miller 5-1).
Still, I think Wilson got a lot of confidence and swagger from that win over UNC where it all came down to him and he pulled off the upset on paper. It will be up to him to back up the late regular-season results as everybody on the bottom half of the bracket at ACCs will have him in their crosshairs. He should be in position to get to NCAAs and the way he seems to be peaking, I think he could surprise some people there (though it will likely be a lot of 3-1/3-2 matches, aka “one-move/takedown” matches).
However, working my way back to the original point of this whole thing, that’s another prime spot for NC State to rack up some unexpected NCAA points and move up into trophy contention.
• From a team perspective, NC State solidified the No. 2 spot in the FloWrestling dual rankings with its win over VT. In the coaches' poll (which is considered “official”), they closed the gap with No. 2 Penn State to just five points … however, with only a dual at Duke remaining, I doubt they will be able to tie the all-time school record and reach No. 2.
A win over Duke is assured, but it won't do anything to help NC State. Given that’s how the ranking shook out this week, their only chance would be a loss from Iowa (who is 12-0 and faces No. 9 Oklahoma State this weekend) and/or Penn State (who is 11-2 but isn't losing to American this weekend). Final poll comes out Feb. 25.
• Again, while duals are awesome, (unfortunately) dual rankings don't really mean a whole lot, what really matters are tournament rankings (i.e. how scoring is done at ACCs and NCAAs).
The Flo national tournament rankings (my preferred poll) saw NC State rise from 11 to tied for 8th in the last week. However, it's a four-way tie for eighth between Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska and NCSU, so it’s arguable if they really moved up. Those teams tied for eighth have quite a bit of distance between them (40.5 team points) and No. 12 (Oklahoma State, 34.5).
The eighth-place teams trail No. 7 Minnesota by 4.5 points, Minnesota trails No. 6 Arizona State by four points, Arizona State trails No. 5 Princeton by 1 point … so NCSU and the others that are tied for eighth trail Princeton by just 9.5 points (which isn’t a whole lot — a fourth-place finisher earns 9 team points, which doesn’t count any bonus/advancement points … 1 extra point for major decision, 1.5 for tech fall, 2 for pin, plus 1 point for championship bracket advancement and 0.5 for consolation bracket advancement).
So NC State is certainly within striking distance of fifth in this rubric, but it's going to be tough to break into the top four (No. 4 Wisconsin was 16.5 points ahead of the eighth-place teams). Tough, but still doable if guys overachieve from where they stand now. I'll lay that out below with some individual national rankings thoughts:
• At 125, redshirt freshman Jakob Camacho only rose one spot nationally, moving ahead of the man he beat vs. Virginia Tech, Joey Prata, who went from 18th to 24th. However, that result had major ACC seeding implications and established Camacho as the ACC’s No. 2 seed. That's big, but he's likely going to have to beat Prata again to reach the finals.
Back to NCAAs, Camacho doesn't have wins over anybody ranked ahead of him nationally, and has lost to some below him, but he's wrestling his best at the right time. NC State could really receive a boost by him reaching the blood round and basically hopping up a tier from the teens to that 9-12 range (or better).
• It's even tighter at 133 in the conference after No. 1. Micky Phillippi of Pitt ranks 6th nationally then the bottom of the top 25 is full of ACC — redshirt frosh Jarrett Trombley at No. 23, VA's Louie Hayes at No. 24 and VT's Collin Gerardi at No. 25.
Trombley has wins over Hayes and Gerardi, and hung tough with Phillippi, but lost to UNC's Jamie Hernandez (1-0; Hernandez is unranked). Will be very interesting to see how seeding shakes out here at the ACC, though this weekend could help determine some of that (mainly UNC-UVA Friday night) … the key will be avoiding the 4 seed, which I think Trombley should be able to do but I don't have full ACC individual results in front of me.
• Although Mitch Moore's win over redshirt junior Tariq Wilson didn't move the Hokie above the Wolfpacker, it sunk Wilson 2 spots in NCAA ranks to No. 13. He maintains a one-slot edge on Zach Sherman of UNC, while Moore checks in at No. 19. There's no clear favorite here within the ACC, and I have no idea how seeding will shake out — Moore beat Wilson, Wilson beat Sherman, Sherman beat Moore.
This weight will provide somebody with some hugely important points at ACCs, but the reality is for NCSU to accomplish their NCAA goals, Wilson needs to be an All-American.
• The ACC only has one 149-pounder in the national rankings — No. 3 Austin O'Connor of UNC. I suspect VT's Bryce Andonian will beat Pitt's Luke Kemerer this weekend to lock up the No. 2 seed in the ACC, and Leitten is the likely 3 if everything this weekend goes chalk. Leitten simply has to be better than he was last Friday at ACCs.
• Similar to a lot of these weights, there's one big favorite within the ACC, and it's NC State's second-ranked Hayden Hidlay. Despite that statement, there's still a slew of high-quality wrestlers from the league at this weight — No. 11 A.C. Headlee (UNC), No. 12 BC LaPrade (VT) and even if he's not in the national rankings right now Pitt's Taleb Rahmani is a tough dude who has had a lot of postseason success in the past (blood round at NCAAs last year and round of 16 in 2017). Rahmani is the definition of a postseason landmine — his record may be 14-8 but no high seed wants to see him early in a bracket.
• Within the league, 165 is an absolute mess. Redshirt junior Thomas Bullard (now No. 8 nationally) didn't face UNC's Kennedy Monday (ranked No. 13 by Flo), but he has beaten the other three so far, including No. 14 Jake Wentzel twice and preseason favorite David McFadden of VT (was No. 7, now No. 9 nationally). The three-time All-American McFadden has lost to Monday and Bullard; Monday beat Wentzel but also has some questionable losses.
If I’m seeding it right now I probably say: 1. Bullard, 2. Monday, 3. McFadden, 4. Wentzel … but it’s tough to say what they’ll do right now. It’d be nuts to have a possible four-time AA as the 4, but that’s what the head-to-head results say to me.
The above would be best-case scenario for NCSU. For NCAAs, Bullard being an All-American would be a huge boost to NCSU, and he’s wrestling like one (shameless plug, like I wrote about Saturday morning: https://ncstate.rivals.com/news/five-takeaways-from-nc-state-wrestling-s-win-over-virginia-tech)
• 174 is another ultra-competitive weight. Pitt’s Gregg Harvey is currently No. 15 in the land, one spot ahead of Daniel Bullard. Harvey earned that with a 10-8 win over Bullard Feb. 1. Those are the only ones in the national rankings from the league, but Duke’s Mason Eaglin is probably their best wrestler and probably on the national top-25 bubble. However, this weight class is a mess after the top two, so I won’t even try to predict how it stacks up 1-6 right now.
All that said, Bullard can win this weight and that would be a monster boost for NC State’s ACC title hopes. I don’t know he’s ready to quite break through on an NCAA level like his brother, but outside of the Harvey loss he has won his other last 10 matches.
• Redshirt freshman Trent Hidlay is No. 3 in the country but No. 2 in the ACC behind national No. 2 Hunter Bolen of Virginia Tech. Hidlay will have to get by No. 7 Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt) to force a rematch with Bolen in the ACC finals, but that shouldn’t be an issue.
A third-place NCAA finish, at this weight, would be an excellent showing for Hidlay, but there are dangerous guys ranked behind him — No. 5 Lou DePrez (Binghamton) has split with Hidlay this year and has the most recent win, while No. 8 Aaron Brooks (Penn State) beat Hidlay in the Fargo finals when they were both in high school and is a guy that I feel is underranked since being pulled out of redshirt. Brooks is 11-1 with the loss against No. 11 Taylor Venz (Nebraska), who has been really up and down this year but finished fourth at the weight in 2018.
Not saying any of these guys are better than Hidlay, just trying to explain how impressive a third-place finish would be (though I know he’s gunning for an NCAA title).
• At 197, it’s UVA’s Jay Aiello (No. 7 nationally) and everybody else within the ACC (nobody else cracks the top 25). Unfortunately, given health questions and everything else, NC State seems to be looking up at everybody else at the weight (except for maybe Duke).
• I basically broke down why sophomore Deonte Wilson is the ACC’s second-best heavyweight in my column Saturday morning. Although he has beaten everybody in the league except for No. 10 Demetrius Thomas (Pitt), he only cracked Flo’s national rankings at No. 24, one spot ahead of VT’s John Borst (who was No. 20 before falling to Wilson) and four slots behind UVA’s Quinn Miller (who he beat 5-1 Jan. 24).
Wilson’s ranking is probably due to a few questionable losses on the resume, though since Jan. 1 he’s only lost to Thomas twice and then a pair of one-pointers to ND State’s Brandon Metz (No. 22) and Hofstra’s Zach Knighton-Ward (unranked). I question Miller being ranked ahead of Wilson and am not sure he has a strong enough resume to justify that (though, looking at it objectively, Wilson’s resume didn’t really have any notable notches before this recent stretch, but he did beat Miller 5-1).
Still, I think Wilson got a lot of confidence and swagger from that win over UNC where it all came down to him and he pulled off the upset on paper. It will be up to him to back up the late regular-season results as everybody on the bottom half of the bracket at ACCs will have him in their crosshairs. He should be in position to get to NCAAs and the way he seems to be peaking, I think he could surprise some people there (though it will likely be a lot of 3-1/3-2 matches, aka “one-move/takedown” matches).
However, working my way back to the original point of this whole thing, that’s another prime spot for NC State to rack up some unexpected NCAA points and move up into trophy contention.
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