There is a lot of buzz going around those Wolfpack faithful who made the trip to the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn that Mark Gottfried’s replacement is in place and a done deal.
From what we have gathered, that’s a bit of a reach. But we do believe that depending on the outcome of the first weekend of NCAA Tournament games the search could be in a decent position to move quickly to fill the vacancy.
We had noted earlier that as part of the sales pitch, athletics director Debbie Yow was being proactive about any notion she may be difficult to work with by collecting testimonials of those who have had good working relationships with her currently and in the past.
Another obstacle that NCSU will need to overcome is the looming retirement of Yow early into the tenure of the next coach. Yow is stepping down after he contract is over following the end of the 2018-19 sports calendar year, which would mean the next hire will have two years with Yow before getting a new boss.
The search certainly belongs entirely to Yow. She will make the choices on the candidates and the ultimate hire, but to ease concerns about the inevitable AD change, we understand that NCSU could have others from the university meet with the emerging leading candidates when the time is appropriate to assure that they will have the backing of the university in addition to the AD.
Yow may have alluded to this before, stating in an interview with the Raleigh News and Observer done since the dismissal of Gottfried that it would be important for the candidates to know that chancellor Randy Woodson “is not going anywhere.”
What’s important to take away is that NC State is not operating with blinders on during this coaching search and trying to meet all challenges head on.
***
One reason why indications are that this search could go smoother than the previous two is that coaches could be more persuaded by the commitment the Wolfpack has to becoming nationally competitive.
A source recently told us that if NCSU had gone over $3 million six years ago on then-VCU head coach Shaka Smart they probably could have gotten the deal done. Whether that’s true or not only Smart knows, but it is true that six years ago NC State was more limited with what it could offer financially. The same was true during the search to replace Herb Sendek, a fact that ran contrary to what many fans understood at the time.
This time around, Adidas has invested a lot of money into the success of NC State revenue sports, the ACC’s annual revenue distribution is much greater than before and other moves made by athletics, including the re-working of the multimedia rights, have added income.
NC State does not have an unlimited budget though, and it will not likely overwhelm some candidates with what it offers. For instance, we have heard that Dayton is prepared to go up to $3 million to keep Archie Miller around for now. For those who may scoff at that notion, Dayton was Forbes’ No. 16 most valuable college basketball program in 2016 with revenue of $12.0 million.
The feeling we get is NC State may be able to go over $3 million for a head coach but not much more. As noted last week, it also needs to budget about $1 million for assistant coaches and other staff. Still, it should be significantly better than what it could provide six years ago.
(Although we would dispute this accounting of events by Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcey based on the evidence on hand and the facts presented to us by multiple sources, DeCourcey did say that Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin was insulted by NC State’s initial contract parameters.)
***
That brings us to the search itself to replace Gottfried. As we noted earlier this week, we lessened the chances of Butler’s Chris Holtmann coming to NC State based on information from sources that indicated that Holtmann is inclined to stick at Butler over coming to Raleigh. One source suggested that the timing was not right for Holtmann.
Although Holtmann and Miller are long shots from all evidence at this point, we would not be surprised if NC State at least tries to make a presentation to the pair to be certain.
Most signs continue to point towards either VCU head coach Will Wade and UNC Wilmingtonhead coach Kevin Keatts, a notion further backed up by a source not directly associated with the search but close to the university.
We are confident that if the Pack is leaning towards Keatts, that deal could get done quickly. If given the chance to interview, we also suspect Keatts will make a persuadable case.
Signs are not as clear on Wade at this point, but we would venture to say that more people than not believe Wade will be very interested in the job.
***
Then there is the dark horse candidate. There are two good recent examples of what we are referring to when we mention that:
• In December of 2006, after the firing of football coach Chuck Amato by then-AD Lee Fowler, the two well-known candidates we were following were then-Navy head coach Paul Johnson, considered the favorite, and then-LSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher.
Johnson made a lot of sense. He was a native of the state, coaches with a blue collar approach and edge that the fan base would appreciate (not to mention his successful tenure at Navy would appeal to NC State’s strong military ROTC programs on campus) and had a niche with his option offense. One hang-up with Johnson: while he was sincerely interested he made is certain that NC State was going to have to come to him to get it done.
Fisher was actually very active behind the scenes. To pull the curtain back some, he had lined up a recruiting director who reached out to The Wolfpacker staff during that time. Fisher was led to believe he was the only assistant on the radar for NC State, and that Johnson was on the list as well as another potential head coach that emerged late as a candidate.
That was Boston College’s Tom O’Brien. At the beginning of the search, it was not known that O’Brien was interested in leaving Boston College where he had established a winning program and seemingly had it good. Not only was O’Brien desiring a change of scenery (and a new AD) after 10 years in Boston, he made a good faith effort with Fowler to get a deal done.
• When Fowler was let go as AD by Woodson in 2010, a search committee was formed and had a list of 4-5 finalists for the position that The Wolfpacker broke the news about. (Among those on that list, an AD at Buffalo named Warde Manuel who in 2016 was hired as the AD at Michigan.)
Yet unbeknownst to the search committee, Yow, a highly established AD at Maryland, was interested in the job. She and Woodson discreetly met to make the deal work.
Both Yow and O’Brien represented highly qualified candidates looking for a change that may not have been on NC State’s radar at the outset of the respective openings. If you want to go outside NCSU, Virginia Tech hiring Buzz Williams away from Marquette in basketball a few years ago also fits the bill.
The best sources we talk with leave wiggle room for such a dark horse candidate.
From what we have gathered, that’s a bit of a reach. But we do believe that depending on the outcome of the first weekend of NCAA Tournament games the search could be in a decent position to move quickly to fill the vacancy.
We had noted earlier that as part of the sales pitch, athletics director Debbie Yow was being proactive about any notion she may be difficult to work with by collecting testimonials of those who have had good working relationships with her currently and in the past.
Another obstacle that NCSU will need to overcome is the looming retirement of Yow early into the tenure of the next coach. Yow is stepping down after he contract is over following the end of the 2018-19 sports calendar year, which would mean the next hire will have two years with Yow before getting a new boss.
The search certainly belongs entirely to Yow. She will make the choices on the candidates and the ultimate hire, but to ease concerns about the inevitable AD change, we understand that NCSU could have others from the university meet with the emerging leading candidates when the time is appropriate to assure that they will have the backing of the university in addition to the AD.
Yow may have alluded to this before, stating in an interview with the Raleigh News and Observer done since the dismissal of Gottfried that it would be important for the candidates to know that chancellor Randy Woodson “is not going anywhere.”
What’s important to take away is that NC State is not operating with blinders on during this coaching search and trying to meet all challenges head on.
***
One reason why indications are that this search could go smoother than the previous two is that coaches could be more persuaded by the commitment the Wolfpack has to becoming nationally competitive.
A source recently told us that if NCSU had gone over $3 million six years ago on then-VCU head coach Shaka Smart they probably could have gotten the deal done. Whether that’s true or not only Smart knows, but it is true that six years ago NC State was more limited with what it could offer financially. The same was true during the search to replace Herb Sendek, a fact that ran contrary to what many fans understood at the time.
This time around, Adidas has invested a lot of money into the success of NC State revenue sports, the ACC’s annual revenue distribution is much greater than before and other moves made by athletics, including the re-working of the multimedia rights, have added income.
NC State does not have an unlimited budget though, and it will not likely overwhelm some candidates with what it offers. For instance, we have heard that Dayton is prepared to go up to $3 million to keep Archie Miller around for now. For those who may scoff at that notion, Dayton was Forbes’ No. 16 most valuable college basketball program in 2016 with revenue of $12.0 million.
The feeling we get is NC State may be able to go over $3 million for a head coach but not much more. As noted last week, it also needs to budget about $1 million for assistant coaches and other staff. Still, it should be significantly better than what it could provide six years ago.
(Although we would dispute this accounting of events by Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcey based on the evidence on hand and the facts presented to us by multiple sources, DeCourcey did say that Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin was insulted by NC State’s initial contract parameters.)
***
That brings us to the search itself to replace Gottfried. As we noted earlier this week, we lessened the chances of Butler’s Chris Holtmann coming to NC State based on information from sources that indicated that Holtmann is inclined to stick at Butler over coming to Raleigh. One source suggested that the timing was not right for Holtmann.
Although Holtmann and Miller are long shots from all evidence at this point, we would not be surprised if NC State at least tries to make a presentation to the pair to be certain.
Most signs continue to point towards either VCU head coach Will Wade and UNC Wilmingtonhead coach Kevin Keatts, a notion further backed up by a source not directly associated with the search but close to the university.
We are confident that if the Pack is leaning towards Keatts, that deal could get done quickly. If given the chance to interview, we also suspect Keatts will make a persuadable case.
Signs are not as clear on Wade at this point, but we would venture to say that more people than not believe Wade will be very interested in the job.
***
Then there is the dark horse candidate. There are two good recent examples of what we are referring to when we mention that:
• In December of 2006, after the firing of football coach Chuck Amato by then-AD Lee Fowler, the two well-known candidates we were following were then-Navy head coach Paul Johnson, considered the favorite, and then-LSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher.
Johnson made a lot of sense. He was a native of the state, coaches with a blue collar approach and edge that the fan base would appreciate (not to mention his successful tenure at Navy would appeal to NC State’s strong military ROTC programs on campus) and had a niche with his option offense. One hang-up with Johnson: while he was sincerely interested he made is certain that NC State was going to have to come to him to get it done.
Fisher was actually very active behind the scenes. To pull the curtain back some, he had lined up a recruiting director who reached out to The Wolfpacker staff during that time. Fisher was led to believe he was the only assistant on the radar for NC State, and that Johnson was on the list as well as another potential head coach that emerged late as a candidate.
That was Boston College’s Tom O’Brien. At the beginning of the search, it was not known that O’Brien was interested in leaving Boston College where he had established a winning program and seemingly had it good. Not only was O’Brien desiring a change of scenery (and a new AD) after 10 years in Boston, he made a good faith effort with Fowler to get a deal done.
• When Fowler was let go as AD by Woodson in 2010, a search committee was formed and had a list of 4-5 finalists for the position that The Wolfpacker broke the news about. (Among those on that list, an AD at Buffalo named Warde Manuel who in 2016 was hired as the AD at Michigan.)
Yet unbeknownst to the search committee, Yow, a highly established AD at Maryland, was interested in the job. She and Woodson discreetly met to make the deal work.
Both Yow and O’Brien represented highly qualified candidates looking for a change that may not have been on NC State’s radar at the outset of the respective openings. If you want to go outside NCSU, Virginia Tech hiring Buzz Williams away from Marquette in basketball a few years ago also fits the bill.
The best sources we talk with leave wiggle room for such a dark horse candidate.
