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Your comprehensive guide to the 2023 men's college basketball coaching hot seat


NC State coach Kevin Keatts gets a mention for solidifying his job this season. Notre Dame is obviously open, and Georgia Tech and Clemson are worth watching.

Keatts didn't get mentioned for the Georgetown job if it opens, but a lot of chatter about Keatts, Pittsburgh's Jeff Capel and Mike Brey (who was mentioned in the story) with the Hoyas, if they go outside the family, which the've not done.

Former NC State assistant coach Takayo Siddle at UNCW got a plug for being an up-and-coming coaching candidate.
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Thank You KK

Thank you for blow out lost on Senior Day! Thank you for recruiting non ACC players. Thank You for AAU basketball with no ball movement and no blocking out on D. Thank You for losing to non NCAA team at home by over 20 points. But most importantly thank you for not getting a double bye. Overrated Coach!

Go Pack

Deconstructing the NET

The NET formula is not only a closely guarded secret but is impossible to reverse engineer. It also seems like it is sometimes impossible to make sense of some of the rankings it produces. But as long as we are talking about the top 40-50, we can take a stab at deconstructing how teams are ranked.

There are only two elements to NET
  • Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) -- the most important piece
  • Team Value Index (TVI)
The NET no longer includes formulas for Strength of Schedule or Win-Loss % nor does it cap margins of victory.

The Team Value Index is super-secret - we have no idea how it is calculated. The NCAA only says that it reflects a team's performance compared to how a NCAA Tournament caliber team would perform considering opponent and location. So we know is has some relation to schedule strength and win percentage . How TVI relates to a team's Quadrant record is unknown, but the Quadrant system is supposedly separate from NET ranking.

Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) is the most important part of NET according to the NCAA and we can estimate that part of the ranking.

Net Efficiency is simple: Offensive points-per-possession minus Defensive points-per-possession. Expressed as points per 100 possessions. How it is "Adjusted" is unknown.

But I suspect that Ken Pomeroy's methodology is not too far off. KenPom adjusts the raw ppp numbers by altering them to how the team would perform against the average D1 opponent -- that is, against a team with average OE and DE numbers. For example, your offensive ppp number is adjusted up against good teams with high DE and down against bad teams with low DE -- that is, "good" and 'bad" are defined as the opponent's OE and DE compared to the D1 average. He also adjusts for game location by adding or subtracting a small percentage (I think 1.4%) for home versus away. Whether he weights recent games higher I do not know. Schedule strength obviously affects the adjustments.

KenPom's ANE seems like a decent proxy for however the NCAA calculates it. Nine of the top 10 NET teams are the same as KenPom's top 10 and in pretty much the same order. (Gonzaga and Arizona are flipped for tenth place.) Of the top 25 NET teams 23 are also in the KenPom top 25 and the rank is within zero to three of one another in all but four cases. Both systems rank Houston (29.46) and Alabama (27.83) #1 and #2.

As we move down the list KenPom's adjusted net efficiency numbers begin to converge becoming much closer together. For instance he has Texas A&M (17.84) at #25 and Indiana (17.79) at #26 while NET has them at #23 and #20. As the ANE differences between teams becomes very small, the TVI contribution to the NET rank becomes more significant. Of the NET teams ranked 26 to 40 all but one are in the KenPom top 40 but 10 are ranked differently by more than three spots. Bottom line, efficiency is a huge factor in the NET rankings when we talk about Tournament-worthy teams.

The top six ACC teams are ranked in the same order on both lists. NC State is 15.07 and ranked fourth in the ACC, for comparison. NET rank is 37, Pomeroy rank is 43.

Takeaways:
  • KenPom rankings are a decent proxy for NET for highly ranked teams, not so much when efficiency differences among teams become very small.
  • ANE and TVI both account for Strength of Schedule in some way but it is not part of the NET formula.
  • Win-loss record appears to be less important than efficiency.
  • Teams are rewarded for running up the score. (If you play bad teams you can mitigate the weak scheduling by scoring a lot.)

The Run Down The Run Down (Feb. 24)

1a. Looking back, I was spoiled.

For over a decade, I could count on Durham high schools to pump out football and basketball recruits. NC State got its fair share over the years, in both basketball recruiting and football.

Many hours were spent at Hillside, Southern Durham, Jordan, Riverside, Mount Zion, Voyager and a little at Northern Durham. You didn’t dare miss a Hillside vs. Southern Durham football game, and both have tremendous bands.

Some of the best recruiting memories involved recruits from Durham. They were just a little more fun — picture A.J. Davis at Northern Durham High who signed with the Wolfpack in the class of 2002.

NC State went “all in” on quarterbacks Vad Lee of Hillside and Kendall Hinton of Southern Durham, only to have them pick other ACC colleges. Lee transferred from Georgia Tech to James Madison and Hinton made the NFL at wide receiver out of Wake Forest.

There was the dance with defensive end Jeffrey Gunter, who NC State liked out of Riverside High in the class of 2017, but then he went to Coastal Carolina, only to later transfer to NC State. After changes in the coaching staff, he went back to Coastal Carolina and became a seventh-round NFL draft pick.

The recruitments for both Emanuel McGirt in the class of 2015 at Hillside, and then T.J. Thorpe at Jordan High in the class of 2011, were hyped up. Both were talented players who had injuries affect their college careers — McGirt at NC State and Thorpe at UNC and Virginia.

And some highly thought of players just didn’t pan out in college.

The drought in Durham started to hit the class of 2019 and 2020, with neither class producing a high major player. It has gotten a little bit better, but it is still a trickle.

UNC signed Southern Durham outside linebacker Jaybron Harvey in the class of 2023.

Duke signed a trio of players with defensive tackle Aaron Hall of Southern Durham and linebacker Anthony Freeman of Northern Durham in the class of 2021, and stole defensive end Vincent Anthony of Jordan High in 2022. Tennessee signed running back Jaylen Wright from Southern Durham in the class of 2021.

NC State had offered Anthony, but weren’t in the mix with Freeman, Hall, Harvey and Wright.

What changed in Durham? Some good coaches moved on is one theory. Coach Antonio King had it rolling at Durham Hillside, and then got hired at East Carolina to be the running backs coach after the 2015 season. The move didn’t work out, but it definitely changed the dynamic at Hillside. Coach Adrian Jones has a quality run at Southern Durham, and then he joined the staff at North Carolina Central after the 2013 season.

Past Durham signees from 2010-18:
• Jamal Currie-Elliott, 2018, RB, Hillside — Oregon/North Carolina Central
• Jordan Riley, 2017, DT, Riverside — North Carolina/Nebraska/Oregon
• Jeffrey Gunter, 2017, DE, Riverside — Coastal Carolina/NC State/Coastal Carolina
• Abdul Adams, 2016, RB, Hillside — Oklahoma/Syracuse
• Daeshawn Stephens, 2016, WR, Hillside — NC State/North Carolina Central
• Jordan Brown, 2016, RB, Southern Durham — North Carolina/Kansas State
• Kendall Hinton, 2015, QB, Southern Durham — Wake Forest
• Emanuel McGirt, 2015, OL, Hillside — NC State
• Maurice Trowell, 2014, WR, Southern Durham — NC State
• Dontae Thomas-Williams, 2014, RB, Hillside — West Virginia/ASA Junior College
• Kalen McCain, 2014, DB, Hillside — NC State/North Carolina Central
• Trevion Thompson, 2014, WR, Hillside — Clemson
• Korrin Wiggins, 2013, DB, Hillside — Clemson
• Khris Francis, 2013, RB, Hillside — North Carolina
• Jamal Marcus, 2012, LB, Hillside — Ohio State
• Phillip Williamson, 2012, OLB, Jordan — North Carolina/Winston-Salem State
• T.J. Thorpe, 2011, WR, Jordan — North Carolina/Virginia
• Vad Lee, 2011, QB, Hillside — Georgia Tech/James Madison
• Sherman Ragland, 2011, WR, Southern Durham — Wake Forest/Shaw
• A.J. Marshall, 2010, CB, Southern Durham — Wake Forest
• Tony Creecy, 2010, RB, Southern Durham — NC State

In basketball, NC State landed T.J. Warren, who played his first two years at Riverside High. The Wolfpack signed Tracy Smith in the class of 2007 out of Mount Zion, and got a commitment from former Mount Zion player Joseph Uchebo, who played at two other high schools, like Warren did.

Jay Huff was an intriguing player at Durham Voyager, and he signed with Virginia. Fellow 7-footer Jonas Aidoo, who is now at Tennessee, also played at Voyager.

Hillside High had two-time NC State commit Torian Graham for his first two years. One-time NC State signee Josh Hall is another Bull City product, who first played at Southern Durham. Another former Southern Durham standout is current Arkansas wing Ricky Council IV, who started off at Wichita State.

NBA small forward Trey Murphy was from Durham, but attended Cary (N.C.) Academy and played at Rice and Virginia.

The bonafides of the Bull City is unquestioned, but what does the future look.

1b. One of the motivations for this segment is that NC State offered Southern Durham sophomore wing Jackson Keith last Sunday after he took in the UNC at NC State game.

There are also some younger players in Durham that don’t have the recruiting hype but will.

One of the most exciting young football recruits in the state of North Carolina has two mid-major offers from East Carolina and Coastal Carolina, but everything is pointing toward freshman tackle Ekene’ Ogboko to be a big, big deal in the football recruiting world.

For starters, he’s 6-foot-5 and 270 pounds already as a freshman. Nothing about his HUDL film makes you think he’s a freshman. He moves well, has a terrific frame and will probably gain 30 pounds by the time he gets to college.

As the previous chart shows, Riverside has produced a few guys over the years, but not a lot. Seeing a Riverside game will be a priority next fall, to confirm he’s as good as I think he’ll be.

Durham Hillside is hopeful that sophomore safety Isaiah Deloatch will “have next” in the class of 2025. He recently attended NC State’s Junior Day on Jan. 20. He had 51 tackles and an interception in helping the Hornets go 13-1 last year. He’s also a standout in the hurdles in track and field.

Football isn’t where it needs to be, but again, it just shows that Durham needs to bounce back.

On the basketball side, besides Keith, the class of 2026 has two freshmen centers with potential. At 6-8, Rivers Knight might grow to be 7-0 at Jordan High, and he has legit three-point range. He just has to continue to adjust to the speed of the game, not get into foul trouble and get stronger.

Mount Zion isn’t Mount Zion anymore, but freshman center Prince Nwokemodo, who arrived over a year and a half ago from Africa. He’s about 6-9 and slender and he’s a good rebounder and shot-blocker. The last two prep seasons, he’s played against grown men with many of Mount Zion’s opponents featuring post-graduate or reclassed seniors. It would be nice to see Nwokemodo in a setting where he’s going against his peers.

I won’t say Durham is back, yet, but I’m hopeful for a brighter future.

3. Another area in the state that has been going through a down cycle in football recruiting has been Fayetteville, N.C.

Which is why it proved interesting that North Carolina has offered Fayetteville Trinity Christian sophomore Karlfonza “Fozzy” Smith, and NC State is showing strong interest in him.

Long-time followers of recruiting know Trinity Christian for basketball, but not as much in football. The school has sent point guard Dennis Smith Jr. and power forward Greg Gantt to NC State hoops, and guard Zovon Lindsay in Wolfpack football, who transferred to Coastal Carolina.

There is a difference between Charlotte and the rest of the state in NCISAA football. The Charlotte schools, Rabun Gap (Ga.) Rabun Gap-Nacoochee and Arden (N.C.) Christ School all play each other.

Looking at the Trinity Christian schedule this past fall, Charlotte Providence Day was the lone Charlotte area squad.

The 6-foot-2, 170-pound Smith looked like a natural as a slot receiver, and it bears watching how many more bubble screens, flanker screens, reverses and pop passes will be in the new offense. He has plus speed and he doesn’t waste much time in getting north-south.

But then Smith could be just as good at defensive back, where he had 32 tackles, four sacks and an interception. College coaches love rangy defensive backs.

Smith caught 13 passes for 178 yards and two scores, and rushed 14 times for 264 yards and five touchdowns.
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